US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 June 2011 / 1

There's money to be made on all four days of the US Open starting with Thursday where Paul Krishnamurty picks five players to get onside in their opening three-balls

4pts Stewart Cink @ [3.0] (vs Cabrera, Harrington) (Starts 12.44)
As always in a US Open, driving accuracy is going to be essential this week, and that spells bad news for Padraig Harrington. Problems in this area of his game explain Harrington's decline since his major-winning days, and it is notable that his three best efforts during this lacklustre season came on much less penal courses. Apart from a top-ten in the Masters, it's hard to find any recent form to encourage a bet on former champion Angel Cabrera either. Augusta was just about his only decent driving performance this season, which again may have something to do with Augusta's relative generosity off the tee.

Compared to them, former British Open champion Stewart Cink looks a much more reliable pick. Cink has a decent record in this major, registering seven top-20s, and is in solid enough form having missing only one of his last 13 cuts.


6pts Graeme McDowell @ [2.1] (vs Oosthuizen, Uihlein) (Starts 12.55)
The defending champion may not be in quite the same world-beating form as 12 months ago, but Graeme McDowell will still take plenty of beating in his opening three-ball where neither opponent is likely to set much of a target. Louis Oosthuizen has been atrocious on his last three starts, and while leading amateur Peter Uihlein doubtless has great potential, the US Open is no event for a novice.

In any case Gmac's disappointing recent figures can mislead about his general wellbeing. Were it not for one disastrous round in each event, he could quite possibly have won either the Wales Open or the 'fifth major' at Sawgrass. He also played very well for three rounds at the World Matchplay. McDowell has never missed a US Open cut, and certainly has enough about him right now to hit the 74 that could well be enough to win this group.


5pts Tim Petrovic [2.4] (vs Piercy, Saunders) (Starts 13.39)
Unless one of them holes from the fairway, I rather doubt this group will warrant a single moment of television coverage, but that shouldn't deter a good value bet. The standard of opposition is so weak that, for once in his low-profile career, journeyman Tim Petrovic rates a very solid favourite. Sam Saunders has made just seven cuts in nearly two years on the PGA, Nationwide and Australasian Tours. Scott Piercy has made only four cuts this year, and no top-25s. He missed the cut on his sole previous attempt in this major, and generally saves his best form for much easier, birdie-friendly courses.

Compared to that, Petrovic's top-20s on his penultimate start and at Redstone read very favourably. So does the fact that Tim has shown some sort of liking for this major, twice making the top-25 and only missing one out of four US Open cuts. Again, 74 might be enough.


6pts Jason Dufner [2.3] (vs Noh, Gallacher) (Starts 18.13)
In-form Jason Dufner represents the day's best bet, in another group that might not take much winning. Seung-Yul Noh is having a poor season, plagued by inaccuracy off the tee. Stephen Gallacher is usually more reliable, but arrives for only his second US Open appearance on the back of four straight bad results. There's little to suggest Gallacher will fare any better than when missing the cut on that previous attempt.

In stark contrast, Dufner came in for strong consideration for my Find Me a 100 Winner column. Though still a non-winner, Dufner should not be waiting for long if top-15s on four of his last five starts are anything to go by. He was also runner-up at the Phoenix Open, and encouragingly, has made three out of four US Open cuts after arriving much worse form.


4pts Charl Schwartzel [2.6] (vs Z Johnson, Immelman) (Starts 18.46)
Of these three surprise Masters champions, Charl Schwartzel definitely looks in the best place right now. Indeed, I wonder whether Charl is yet receiving the respect he deserves after that outstanding weekend at Augusta. That win merely confirmed the significant improvement he's made over the past year or so, and he's generally looked very classy since. Schwartzel produced some superb golf in the World Matchplay, and apart from one bad week, his recent GIR stats are exemplary. It would probably be asking too much for back-to-back major wins, but there's no reason to think he can't at least register a sixth straight top-30 in a major.

Neither opponent has any sort of record in the US Open. Zach Johnson's best result from seven tries is just 45th, while Trevor Immelman has one top-50 from six, and also missed the cut on both previous visits to Congressional. Moreover, both men are well behind Schwartzel on this year's form.

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1. dan g | 15 June 2011

   good luck Paul, you've done well with 3balls in the past, i'll follow with interest. I like David Chung to beat Funk/Campbell myself

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