Scottish Football / John Girvan / 15 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Celtic travelled to Ibrox last week as [1.64] favourites to retain the title but a home win saw them drift to [2.44]. It looked to be slipping away from the current champions but a nervy home win over Dundee United on Tuesday was followed by a dramatic draw for Rangers on Wednesday. John Girvan straps himself in for the next installment...

With just two games remaining all that separates the Old Firm is a two goal advantage in favour of Celtic and it sees the current champions retain the position of favourites at [1.7].

Rangers blew it on Wednesday. Not the championship, just the three points on this particular evening but they have handed the advantage back to Celtic and are now [2.34] outsiders for a first title in four years.

It has been said that football is a game of two halves and Wednesday night in Leith was the perfect example. Rangers made one change from Saturday with Andrius Velicka replacing the injured Kenny Miller and that meant a serious lack of pace up front in a game The Gers' really had to grab by the throat from the off. They didn't however and with the first shot on target Derek Riordan fired Hibs in front just before the break.

Walter Smith hooked Velicka and Stevie Smith at the interval and the replacements were positive with Lafferty and Novo creating more opportunities in the opening 10 minutes of the second period than the entire first. The Spaniard got the equaliser but could easily have been on a hat-trick by then and the draw means Rangers need goals in Saturday's live Setanta clash at home to an Aberdeen side who are now hard pushed to make Europ.

The key here will undoubtedly be Walter Smith's starting 11. The second half was excellent from Rangers on Wednesday; there was pace, a barrel load of chances and if the Ibrox side start how they finished in mid-week both in personnel and the performance then Rangers -1.5 in the Asian Handicap is worth a punt. This pays out at [1.87] on any home win by at least a two goal cushion.

Any home win, priced at [1.28] incidentally, puts the pressure back on Celtic for their trip to Easter Road the following day. Gordon Strachan will have been watching Hibs closely the other night and if he has learned from Walter Smith's mistake then he will set his troops up to attack. McGeady was sensationally dropped for the trip to Ibrox but returned mid-week and should be a certain starter given his creative attributes.

Hibernian's form is inconsistent. They had chances to double their lead over Rangers on Wednesday but a victory would have been only their second in the last seven. Celtic have won five of their last seven but, like Rangers, they have won just 55% of their 18 away games thus far so at a price as low as [1.51] they would normally be considered as a lay.

This is no run of the mill fixture however and unless Rangers knock an unlikely four or five past Aberdeen then an away win would put Celtic into an incredibly strong position. Celtic should win this one but Hibs having nothing to lose, have scored in each of their last six, including three in two recent home ties against Rangers, and the value could lie with backing "No" in the Celtic Clean Sheet Market at [1.71].

The bottom six is high on drama also where it's beginning to look bleak for St Mirren.
Three straight defeats since the split have sunk Saints from [11.5] outsiders for the drop to [1.46] favourites whilst two wins and a draw for Falkirk have taken them from a doomed [1.31] to [2.52]. Just one point separates the sides and they meet at the Falkirk Stadium on Saturday where a home win can all but relegate the Paisley side.

John Hughes' men have done a tremendous job in getting off the bottom but things can change very quickly as they themselves could testify. Gus MacPherson has been aware of the need for points for quite some time now but his side have been unable to dig out even the odd draw.

The hosts have the momentum here and look decent value at [2.14] in the Match Odds. However 'Falkirk -0 & -0.5' pays out on a home win at [1.82] with half your stake returned in the event of a draw and this a much safer play given the circumstances.