SPL Betting Preview: Pivotal weekend for those with European dreams

Scottish Football / John Girvan / 20 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

John Girvan looks at the top fixtures in his weekly preview of the Scottish scene.

After two weeks of cup action the SPL takes centre stage again. Celtic lifted the Co-op Insurance League Cup last Sunday and, with them already out of the Homecoming Scottish Cup, ensured no-one can win the treble. The knockout competitions are a bonus however and the big ticket is undoubtedly the League Championship. Automatic Champions League qualification comes with it and both sides, particularly Rangers, would welcome this.

It would be a double celebration for the blue half of Glasgow, who are [2.7] to win the title. They haven't been champions since 2005 and this seasons Champions League exit in Kaunas was humiliating for the players and supporters. It cost the club an estimated ten million pounds whilst Celtic ([1.58]), although never covering themselves in any glory, at least cashed in on glamour ties with the likes of last eight duo Manchester United and Villarreal.

Since 2005 the Old Firm have shown a trend of dropping points once in every four matches, including to each other. This season however has seen a change to almost once in every three games so with 10 fixtures still outstanding there is certainly all to play for.

The whole division is poised for a thrilling finale and every fixture is a potential banana skin for the big two. Setanta Sports have a role to play also and their live screening of Celtic's visit to Dundee United on Sunday gives Rangers the chance to draw level beforehand with a win over Hearts at Ibrox on Saturday.

Virtually all Rangers and Celtic away matches are screened live on a Sunday and throughout the run-in both sides will have to cope with the pressure of playing catch-up.

Hearts and Rangers are two sides looking to get their seasons back on track after defeats to their fiercest rivals. For the Edinburgh side it was their first defeat in five games, but they still remain five points clear of their closest challengers for third. With Aberdeen at Hibs and Dundee United facing Celtic this weekend a defeat may not affect things much and Csaba Laszlo might just go to Ibrox and attack.

Walter Smith has received some harsh criticism in the wake of last Sunday's League Cup Final defeat. The Ibrox faithful are becoming increasingly disgruntled at the style of play in big games with avoiding defeat the priority and an unwillingness to go and attack. Hearts will be a difficult side to break down and there will have to be an improvement if the hosts are to keep in check with Celtic.

It will be a tough game for Rangers and the [1.46] in the Match Odds reflects this as it represent more than twice the profit you would yield from a Rangers home win over sides in the bottom six. Hearts will miss Andy Driver but with only 12 points separating the sides after 28 fixtures [8.8] represents value for an away win or even a more likely draw at [4.7].

I anticipate an encounter not too dissimilar to that against Dundee United in January. Here, the tie was goalless at the break and Rangers didn't make the breakthrough until the 78th minute. The visitors are capable of holding Rangers in the first period and you just feel the magnitude of what is at stake should be enough to ensure Rangers grind it out in the end. On this basis Draw/Rangers is worth a shot at [4.6].

Dundee United have lost their way a little bit recently. They were clear in third place and cruising before Christmas but have since been a figure of inconsistency and are now only four points clear of both Hibs and Motherwell. Just two wins and three draws in nine fixtures isn't the form they were showing in the first half of the season and Celtic will fancy their first 90 minutes victory over Dundee United in four matches this season.

There is every chance the champions will be level on points with Rangers going into this one. They were close last weekend before Celtic pulled away late on and given the confidence that lifting a trophy brings you would expect Gordon Strachan's side to dig out what is required on Sunday. The omission of both Hesselink and Samaras was a bold move last week it maybe showed they have a plan B and can do without them.

Craig Levein loves a tussle with the Old Firm. He shows no fear in these matches and will be gearing up his side for a game that could jump start their season. They weren't as threatening at Ibrox in January as they were in the previous meetings and I can understand why there are as big as [5.5] in the Match Odds here. All things considered the [1.78] on Celtic looks quite generous and so does the [2.6] on a Celtic Clean Sheet.

The odds are against Celtic and Rangers both surviving the weekend unscathed. The multiple pays out at around [2.5] but I feel on this occasion it's decent value and worth backing.

Elsewhere there are some tough games to call this week. I would be surprised to see either St Mirren getting a result at Hamilton or Aberdeen leaving Easter Road with three points so I feel it's worth investing in two Asian Handicap plays in these fixtures. Back Hibernian -0 at [1.79] and Hamilton -0 at [1.66]. Here all stakes are refunded in the event of a draw.