SPL Betting Preview; Old Firm shape up for another tight race

Scottish Football / John Girvan / 29 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

John Girvan looks ahead to this weekend's SPL action as Rangers look to build on their win at Hamilton whilst Celtic travel to the capital in search of a magnificent seven.

Despite lifting the championship three years in a row now Celtic dropped points in 32 of the 114 matches they played in achieving this. There have been at least ten "slip-ups" in each term over the same period and all of this equates to a ratio of once every four matches (1:3.65). It reads even worse for Rangers as being second best hasseen them fail to win eleven games last season and 17 in each of the previous two campaigns.

Both sides are similar to last season in terms of ability and who is on show with not much in the way of wholesale changes in personnel. In the last campaign there were two Old Firm wins each, the title was decided on the last day, and things are shaping up to be just as tight this time around. If we exclude their meetings last term this gives us a combined total of 17 matches where either side failed to gain maximum points in a total of 68 games against the rest of the SPL. This equates to a ratio of exactly one in four.

It's not an exact science and Celtic are proving this at present with six league wins on the bounce since their home defeat to Rangers in August. They might have a dismal away record in the Champions League but it's a completely different story in Scotland. The Glasgow side travel to Tynecastle on Sunday in search of their fourth consecutive away win in the league after a 1-1 draw with Dundee Utd in August was followed up with wins at Motherwell, Kilmarnock and Inverness.

Taking Rangers out of the equation Celtic are on course for eight victories on the trot against "the rest" and with this kind of winning run on the verge of double figures the layers are surely starting to rub their hands together.

Hearts recent form, however, suggests they might not be a match for their visitors in Sunday's live Setanta Sports broadcast. The Edinburgh side sit fifth in the table but one win and two draws is all they have to show from their last six fixtures. New coach Csaba Laszlo is also showing signs of pressure. He could be in for a touchline ban for confronting officials after referee Steve Conroy awarded Hearts a late penalty against Aberdeen only to change his mind after consulting his assistant. The club say they will appeal any ban.

The actions of Laszlo are a clear sign that things haven't been going Hearts way and I expect this to continue on Sunday. A home win at [5.6] is highly unlikely and they will be hard pushed to even retain a point, which pays out at [3.75]. The away side are a generous [1.76] in this one and since it's a weaker home side than in recent seasons I fully expect Celtic to improve on a three year record of just two wins in their last five visits.

The Bhoys have conceded five goals in four away games thus far, with at least one in each game, but the [2.74] available for a clean sheet could also prove tempting.

Rangers have beaten Inverness just twice in the Highlander's last six visits to Ibrox. The remarkable record stretches back to September 2004 and includes a trio of 1-1 draws and a famous 1-0 win recorded in October 2006. The Govan side won all three meetings last season however, all to nil, and Celtic's recent win at the Caley Stadium suggests the home crowd might be spared further upset.

Barry Ferguson was an unused substitute for the mid-week cup quarter-fianal win on Tuesday night. The skipper is expected to make a return to the starting line-up and the first eleven is also likely to include Kris Boyd since the striker bagged a trio of goals in the league and cup double header with Hamilton. The inclusion of Boyd will alert backers of a high scoring home win and "Any Unquoted" could be breached at Ibrox for the first time this season, paying out at odds of [4.4].

Over 2.5 goals could also bear fruit at [1.63] whilst the big money might be on Rangers/Rangers in the HT/FT market at [1.74].

With Inverness a massive [15.0] in the match odds and the draw [6.4], the hosts are very short at [1.26] so with an easy home win anticipated the value lies in other markets. The Asian Handicap offers value for a comfortable home win in such scenarios and Rangers -1.5 goals represents decent value at [1.8] or greater.