Scottish Football / John Girvan / 17 April 2009 / Leave a comment

It's match day 33 of the Clydesdale Bank Scottish Premier League, the last before the end of season split and a massive weekend for both Hibs and Motherwell, writes John Girvan.

In 2000/01 the SPL reduced the 44 game season by 6 matches and introduced a new twist to the closing stages. The aim was to reduce the number of meaningless mid-table clashes and maintain interest in the league.

The way this particular season is shaping up is probably what the SPL bosses had in mind but based on results this weekend one of Hibs and Motherwell are set to lose out. Seventh place on Sunday evening spells a £300,000 shortfall in income and five meaningless matches against sides all fighting to retain their SPL status.

Hibernian hold a one point advantage and are four goals better off in the table but it's difficult to assess who has the upper hand in this tussle. The Steelmen play a day earlier against St Mirren but Hibs will have it all to do gainst Rangers on Sunday.

Setanta Sports will be in the thick of the battle and Motherwell have the chance to get their noses in front. Mark McGhee's men have just one win in five at present but have been on a decent run this year having lost just two of their last 14. Many of these have been draws however including four of the last six that all ended 1-1 in an unbeaten home run that stretches back to December.

It's a big game for St Mirren also. The Paisley side are just four points off the foot of the table and are one of five who could be relegated this season. Cup ties aside The Buddies haven't won a game since December but they have showed some improvement recently and Hibs were fortunate to escape with a point in last Monday's live Setanta clash.

Three draws and three defeats in the last six away ties does not read well for Gus MacPherson's men and given the circumstances you have to fancy Motherwell to edge this one. Home fans can attend this match for just a fiver and 12th man could be enough to deliver a return on Motherwell in the Match Odds at [1.91].

The championship took another twist last weekend. Celtic's 1-1 draw at Tynecastle allowed rivals Rangers get to within a single point and Gordon Strachan's men drifted to [1.64] for a fourth consecutive crown. Rangers are now in to [2.52] and that's about right considering Walter Smith's men face a real tough one at Easter Road on Sunday.

They should be four points behind Celtic going into that one as you would expect the champions to bounce back after last week's slip up. Opponents Aberdeen are unbeaten in their last seven league ties but five of these have been draws. First choice strikers Lee Miller and Darren Mackie are both out so they look highly unlikely to alter the goal scoring ratio which stands at just six in those last seven games.

The Dons are as strong as ever elsewhere and the approach they might take will be to build on a solid defence that boasts four clean sheets and has shipped just four goals in the last seven league ties. Celtic will be without the midfield drive of Scott Brown so Under 2.5 goals sticks out at [2.38] whilst it might just pay dividends to cover the 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores at [8.2] and [7.4] respectively.

There is so much riding on the match at Easter Road on Sunday. A home win, regardless of events at Fir Park on Saturday, will be enough to keep Hibs in the top six whilst a Rangers victory could show they have what it takes to go all the way this year.

If Motherwell win on Saturday then Hibs goalscoring will have to improve if they are to pip them at the post. Just five goals in their last six is poor but they have conceded just four in this time whilst developing a tag as draw specialists with six of the last eight ending this way. They beat Celtic back in December and will know they are capable of doing the same to Rangers.

A 3-0 at Easter Road in September was Rangers fourth win on the bounce at the time. They never took that particular run any further and have failed to match it thus far but they can do so on Sunday and that would surely bode well for the run in.

This one surely boils down to the needs of Mixu Paatelainen and Hibernian. The Finn is under a little bit of pressure and whilst it's felt McGhee would be safe if Motherwell missed out the same cannot be said with much confidence with regards to the Hibs boss.

Last week the stats told you that Celtic should have been opposed at Tynecastle. The win ratio of just 48% from 23 games didn't equate to the [1.78] on offer and this week the story is similar for Rangers. The Gers have a slightly higher win ratio at 65% but are shorter in the Match Odds at just [1.68] and, like Celtic last week, they should be opposed. Under 2.5 goals also appeals in this one at [1.91].