Scottish Football / John Girvan / 05 February 2010 /

John Girvan talks us through an intriguing set of Cup fixtures north of the border where Celtic need to get back to winning ways before Tony Mowbray's job is at real risk.

Late drama at both Hamilton and Hibs saved our bacon last week. Celtic missed a last minute penalty that would have wiped out the 2pt stake on Hamilton + 1.5 goals. The good fortune continued at Easter Road where Hibs were being held until an injury time winner returned the stake on Hibernian -1.0. Draw/Rangers was a long shot at Ibrox where once again Rangers scored an early goal and went on to make sure of the points.

Profit/Loss: - 7.81 pts

There was hysteria in the East End of Glasgow on Monday night as news broke of Robbie Keane's arrival at Celtic. This turned to despair less than 24 hours later with his debut ending in defeat at Rugby Park. Rangers are now 10 points clear in the title race but all this gets put to one side this weekend for the fifth round of the Active Nation Scottish Cup.

Sky Sports cover a tie between two sides on a high at New St Mirren Park this Saturday lunch time. Saints and visitors Rangers both made it through to the Co-op Insurance League Cup Final in midweek and the dress rehearsal is the nineteenth time the clubs have met in the Scottish Cup.

St Mirren are looking for only their second Scottish Cup triumph over Rangers but like most clubs who move to a new stadium, they have struggled to settle in. They have managed to win all four cup ties since the move last January however, including last season's Quarter-Final against Celtic.

More recently though, last week's defeat at Hibs was the club's eighth away loss on the trot and they sit third bottom and just three points safe of relegation. Rangers were one nil up within two minutes of last Wednesday's league tie here and were rarely threatened before doubling their advantage late on.

The Gers are still without leading striker Kris Boyd but Kenny Miller has declared himself fit and Steven Naismith is also pushing for a start. In defence Sasa Papac should return and although David Weir is suspended, Majid Bougherra is back in the squad and should pick up where he left off before heading to Angola.

I've been saying it for a few weeks, but whilst Rangers aren't at full strength they won't be steamrolling anyone in the fashion they did during December. Early goals and a strong defence have been getting results with a depleted squad.

Rangers ([1.38]) have conceded just once in the last six whilst St Mirren ([10.5]) have scored just three in their last six including an own goal. The league leaders are grinding out results so it points to a low scoring win for Walter Smith's men. Back Under 2.5 goals at [2.18].

Inverness Caledonian Thistle are in the fifth round courtesy of a home victory over Motherwell and have followed this up with league wins at Airdrie and at home to Partick Thistle. They are unbeaten since November but as Celtic discovered on Tuesday, no team can relish a trip to Rugby Park at the moment.

Jimmy Calderwood is only six games into his reign as Kilmarnock boss but he's having an impact already. It was a difficult start but Killie entertained in the 4-4 home draw with a resurgent Dundee United last week and the 1-0 win over a Celtic side buoyed by the signing of Robbie Keane speaks for itself.

I fancy Kilmarnock strongly in this one and [2.02] in the match odds is good value.

Sky Sports are making a weekend of it north of the border by covering Celtic's trip to Dunfermline on Sunday. The jury is out on Tony Mowbray and the Celtic faithful will surely lose confidence in their manager if they exit at the hands of a mid-table Division One outfit.

A Celtic backlash could be on the cards and the layers are running scared with Dunfermline as big as [12.0] and Celtic as short as [1.28] in the match odds. They were expected to run amok at Rugby Park on Tuesday but after 16 straight home defeats in that particular tie, it was perhaps time Killie were due something.

Celtic are a very creative side but on the whole their finishing has been terrible this season. This should improve with the arrivals of Robbie Keane, Diomansy Kamara and don't forget Rasmussen who came off the bench to snatch a winner at Hamilton last week. I expect Celtic to win comfortably and reckon Celtic -2.0 is worth backing at around [2.2] in the Asian Handicap.

Recommendations:

St Mirren v Rangers: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.18] (2pts)

Kilmarnock @ [2.02] (1pt)

Celtic -2.0 goals @ [2.2] (2pts)

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