Scottish Football / John Girvan / 09 January 2009 / Leave a comment

John Girvan talks us through the best bets on offer this weekend as the Scottish Cup dominates the football calendar north of the border.

From the outset Inverness look prime candidates for a cup upset this weekend when Partick travel North for a battle of the Jags. The hosts have lost all of their last six league matches and have only a point to show for their efforts in the last seven home fixtures. Their only win at The Caley Stadium this term came way back in September and the pressure is firmly on the manager with "Brewster Out" banners on show during last weekend's home defeat to Rangers.

Partick Thistle sit 3rd in a very competitive Irn-Bru 1st Divison at present but it is the home form of seven wins and a draw from ten that are keeping them in check with leaders St Johnstone. The away form is poor it has to be said and last weekends win at Clyde was the first since August for Ian McCall's men.

Inverness are not as bad a side as six defeats on the trot suggests, they faced four of the top five in this period, and [1.86] is excellent value for a home win that gives Craig Brewster a little breathing space.

Team selection is a major factor in deciding whether a side are worth backing or not and Alloa v Aberdeen is a classic example of this. Earlier this week Jimmy Calderwood revealed reservations over the artificial playing surface at Recreation Park. The Dons boss has always been opposed to such surfaces and in his time at East End Park as Dunfermline manager, 12 of his players required hernia operations.

Of course there is no direct link between the two but it is too much of a coincidence for Calderwood.

A Wednesday run around at Recreation Park allayed the initial fears with the manager telling the club website "Derek Young will not be risked on that surface but some of the other concerns, such as Zander Diamond and Scott Severin seemed okay". Darren Mackie, Lee Mair and Stuart Duff are other Dons regulars to have been deemed at risk due their injury history.

Aberdeen have a relatively short journey on Saturday and despite the playing surface I expect them to take care of the part-timers with ease. The visitors are available at [1.41] in the Match Odds but before steaming in, it would be wise to wait until the teams are announced. If some of the names above are omitted then the [9.2] on Alloa or [5.4] for a draw could start to look interesting.

The 4th round has thrown up a couple of mouth-watering derbies and the first of which takes place at Somerset Park on Saturday where Ayr United host local rivals Kilmarnock.

The Honest Men usually attract around 1400 spectators for a home game but such is the interest here that tickets are in short supply and a sell-out in the region of 10,000 beckons.

I know Ayr midfielder "Tiff" Aitken well and caught up with him midweek to get his thoughts on Saturday's local derby. "It's a massive game for both sides" said Chris. "There's no hiding it, we are massive underdogs and any result would be an achievement but we are playing well and scoring goals so we are confident. It's the Scottish Cup at the end of the day so anything can happen".

Ayr are going well in the Irn-Bru 2nd Division. They are just four points behind leaders Raith Rovers but with a game in hand and have scored 17 goals recently on a run of six wins out of their last seven in the league. Killie are reasonably comfortable in 7th place in the SPL table. They are very difficult to predict, losing when they are expected to win, vice versa and it's clear they aren't good enough, or consistent enough, to compete with Hearts, Aberdeen and Dundee Utd for the European places.

A relegation battle is highly unlikely for Killie so a Scottish Cup run could see a purposeful second half of the season for Jim Jeffries' men. Ayr will have other ideas of course and I see being branded as the underdogs on Saturday as suiting them just nicely. The pressure is all on Kilmarnock in many ways and they are expected to win. All things considered, laying them at [1.82] appeals but over 2.5 goals could be a safer bet at [1.79].

St Mirren ended 114 years at Love Street with a lacklustre 0-0 draw with Motherwell last weekend, or did they? A draw at Brechin City on Saturday gives The Buddies a second chance to sign off in style with a replay at St Mirren Park, Love Street.

The Glebe Park hosts are sitting comfortably in 3rd in the Irn-Bru 2nd Division. They are on a bad run at present with three consecutive league defeats but are still in the hunt for the title and the home form is excellent with five wins from the last six. Saints are in fine form at present with four wins and a draw in their last six and now find themselves 8th in the SPL.

The visitors don't score that many goals and it's a Scottish Cup tie so I don't see them going to Glebe Park and running riot. Yes, there is a certain gulf in class but it will be tight and all things considered, the draw at [3.9] looks good value.

Finally, St Johnstone face a big test of their SPL credentials as the Irn-Bru 1st Division leaders host Rangers on Tuesday night. It's early days in terms of liquidity in the market but [1.26] on Rangers look very short. McDiarmid Park is a bit of a fortress these days and recently Saints have five wins and a draw from their last six home games.

Rangers don't have a good recent record against St Johnstone either. The Saints were worthy 2-0 winners at Ibrox in a 2007 League Cup quarter-final tie during Paul Le Guen's infamous tenure and more recently The Gers needed extra time and penalties to make it through to last season's Scottish Cup Final. The match is live on BBC Scotland and I imagine many in-play fans will be laying Rangers at the current price with a view to trade.