Premier League Betting; Single goal victories win you titles

/ Ralph Ellis / 31 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Manchester United won nine games by 1-0 last season en route to winning the Premier League.

"One nil means you’ve taken your chance when you got it. It means you had the work rate and defensive organisation to protect that; the concentration to hang on and get over the line, the courage to throw bodies in front of the ball and the commitment to clear a couple from under the bar when your goalkeeper was finally beaten."

As Manchester City and Manchester United both took three points at the weekend courtesy of winning by a single goal, Ralph Ellis tells us why it's these consistent wins rather than the odd drubbing that gets you over the finishing line when it comes to winning the Premier League.

When you talk to the professionals, the result they love most is a one nil win. Forget all the fancy, flowery goal romps that send fans home happy after smashing five when the centre forward gets a hat-trick; never mind the gripping tension of that classic 4-3 between Liverpool and Newcastle that's still considered the greatest Premier League game ever. No, what the pros most admire is coming through the nitty gritty of a tight game with three points.

One nil means you've taken your chance when you got it. It means you had the work rate and defensive organisation to protect that; the concentration to hang on and get over the line, the courage to throw bodies in front of the ball and the commitment to clear a couple from under the bar when your goalkeeper was finally beaten.

It also wins you titles. Manchester United won nine games by that scoreline last season, taking a grip on the League in the middle of the campaign when they churned out eight on-nillers from 11 games. When Chelsea won their first title under Jose Mourinho, there were 11 times that a single goal was all it took to deliver three points. And don't forget, the most famous of all, the "one-nil to the Arsenal" era under George Graham and then Arsene Wenger's early sides.

So what do we make of the Gunners no longer being able to protect a single goal lead? So far this season they have normally followed the first with a glut of goals, causing their price to be title winners to come dashing in to [7.8]. But when it mattered at Old Trafford on Saturday they couldn't hang on to the one that should have mattered.

Wenger is supposed to be getting an apology today for his last minute red card. Maybe, actually, he should be saying sorry for kicking a water bottle in protest at a perfectly good offside decision. He's also labelled Manchester United "anti-football" for too many fouls that broke up his team's midfield rhythm. Truth is that dealing with the more physical side of the game is a vital part of winning a championship, and Wenger's kids still can't do that. Their 2-1 defeat at United, after leading at half time through Andrey Arshavin's blistering goal, proved that. Where once they had Patrick Vieira to fight the battles with Roy Keane, now Alex Song at 21 years old is not yet ready to go head to head even with Darren Fletcher.

One team that does pass the one-nil test already this season is Manchester City. Three wins so far, two of them by that hallowed scoreline, and in the other they added the second goal with virtually the last kick of the game. Mark Hughes must have been more than happy heading away from Fratton Park last night. It was always going to be difficult for Hughes to get his crop of expensive summer signings to gel in the first few games. The fact they can grind it out should give him the perfect platform to make things better. The [15] for them to upset the whole Premier League cartel and actually win the whole damn thing continues to look tempting. The even money bet for a new top four at the end of the season that I suggested backing two weeks ago is already in to [1.77].

City's win meant Stoke were knocked out of the top four, much to the disappointment of Tony Pulis. He'd have liked to spend the international break looking at his club in the Champions League places! They also showed their character with a single goal win against Sunderland with Dave Kitson scoring his first in the League since arriving as the record signing more than a year ago. You can still back Stoke to finish in the top half of the table in the Finishing Positions market and with the arrival of Tuncay and Robert Huth to give more depth to the squad that looks a winner.

Those who couldn't protect a lead? Wigan were a goal up against Everton and lost 2-1. I still think they are value at [5.2] for relegation. Bolton, also [5.3] to go down, were twice in front against Liverpool. And Hull should have buried Wolves at Molineux after going a goal up in three minutes but ended up relying on Michael Turner to rescue them with a fantastic goal line clearance only to get a 1-1 draw. Turner's likely to be sold before tomorrow's transfer deadline, one of the reasons Phil Brown's side are [1.95] joint favourites with Pompey to go down.

Worst performance of the weekend was Fulham's desperately tired effort at Aston Villa, where Roy Hodgson's side looked hungover from flying to Russia and back in the Europa League. Getting knocked out by Rapid Vienna might turn out a blessing for Martin O'Neill with his team as long as [3.35] to repeat last year's top six finish. They may or may not complete the signing of Richard Dunne before tomorrow's deadline - if they don't the performance of England Under 19 captain Ciaran Clark suggested he's already got some pretty decent defensive cover on his staff.