The Pay As You Lay Column: Three odds-on home teams worth opposing

Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 20 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Carlos Tevez has been struggling for goals of late but has gone about his business in his usual determined and resilient way and could create major headaches for Liverpool's suspect defence.

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's taking on three home teams in three different leagues.

"City’s challenge for a top-four finish has stalled with five successive draws, but their only defeat in 11 league games was the somewhat unfortunate derby loss at Old Trafford. City have scored in all but one of those games and their quality up front gives them a good chance of taking something from this match."

Lay Liverpool at [1.99] v Manchester City

Liverpool have already lost to three of the teams looking to put pressure on the Big Four this season - Tottenham, Aston Villa and Sunderland - and they look vulnerable again. Their only top-class result this season was the 2-0 home win over Manchester United, with all their other victories coming against teams outside the top eight. Even then, there were some signs of weakness, notably in the 3-2 away wins at Bolton and West Ham, and those signs re-emerged with their recent 3-1 defeat at Fulham and the recent home 2-2 draw with Birmingham. City's challenge for a top-four finish has stalled with five successive draws, but their only defeat in 11 league games was the somewhat unfortunate derby loss at Old Trafford. City have scored in all but one of those games and their quality up front gives them a good chance of taking something from this match.

Lay Borussia Dortmund at [1.72] v Mainz

A clear case of reputation talking louder than form, as Mainz are four points ahead of Dortmund on merit and yet are [5.74] outsiders for this match. Dortmund remain a big name around Europe, as it is only a little over a decade since they won the Champions League, but their last Bundesliga title was in 2001-02 and they haven't had a team to match their huge support since then, finishing no better than sixth in the past five seasons. This season they are ninth, having won only four games out of 12 - all against teams in the bottom six. Mainz are performing at a higher level in their first season back in the top flight, with their good results including wins over Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim and draws with Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg. Mainz have lost only two out of nine against teams below them in the table and look seriously underrated.

Lay Roma at [1.74] v Bari

Here's another case of a team being priced up on reputation. Both of Rome's big-name clubs are nowhere near the force of old - Roma are 14th in the table and Lazio 16th - and they look teams to take on at short odds for the foreseeable future, having won only six games out of 24 between them this season. Roma have won only two out of eight against teams above them in the table, so they appear to be in the bottom half of the table on merit and could have trouble against ninth-placed Bari. Last season's Serie B champions have adapted well to top-flight football, losing only two out of 12 thanks to the best defence in Serie A.

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