Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 06 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's setting his sights on one Premier League and two Bundesliga matches.

"Villa have scored and conceded in each of their last six games, though, which opens up the possibility that both teams can score and raises the likelihood of the score going over 2.5 goals."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.97] in Aston Villa v Bolton

Bolton are the only team in the Premier League without a clean sheet this season and that trend looks set to continue against Villa, who have scored in every game since their surprise 2-0 defeat by Wigan on the opening day of the season. Villa have scored and conceded in each of their last six games, though, which opens up the possibility that both teams can score and raises the likelihood of the score going over 2.5 goals. That has happened in three of Bolton's four away games so far and, like Villa, Bolton's games have tended to produce goals for both sides - before last week's 4-0 home defeat by Chelsea, both Bolton and the opposition had scored in their previous seven games.

Lay Bayern Munich at [1.81] v Schalke

Bayern's 2-0 home defeat by Bordeaux on Tuesday night has left them in serious peril of failing to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage, and they're not looking too secure in the Bundesliga. Bayern are sixth in the table, though only four points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen, and they have won fewer than half of their games (five out of 11). Under-pressure coach Louis Van Gaal says this is a must-win match for Bayern, but that will be far from easy against fourth-placed Schalke, who are unbeaten on the road with four wins out of five. Former Bayern coach Felix Magath, who would revel in a victory over his old club, guided Wolfsburg to a surprise league win last season and is starting to work his magic at Schalke, who are unbeaten in seven in all competitions and won't have an inferiority complex, having taken a win and a draw from their last two visits to Bayern.

Lay Werder Bremen at [1.73] v Borussia Dortmund

It is pretty easy to argue that there is a significant gap between Dortmund and the top teams, looking both at the table and their heavy defeats against Hamburg (4-1 away) and Bayern Munich (5-1 at home), but there are signs both of overall improvement and a more competitive edge in big matches. Dortmund have lost only one out of six since the Bayern defeat and in their last away game they drew 1-1 at leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Resurgent Werder Bremen are second in the table, but the bulk of their points have been gained against teams below Dortmund in the table and there have been enough wobbles - including a 2-2 at Nurnberg last time - to give Dortmund hope.

Tags: Ashley young, Aston Villa, Bundesliga betting, football betting, Martin O'Neill, Premier League matches