Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 09 April 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets...

"Five of Blackburn’s seven home games against teams above them in the table have had under 2.5 goals and both of the higher-scoring games came when Rovers managed two goals, which looks unlikely here in a game that looks set to be dominated by the defences."

Lay over 2.5 goals at [1.9] in Blackburn v Manchester United

Wayne Rooney's expected absence is likely to change the goals expectation here, even though the opposition for United is of a lower class than in the recent games against Chelsea and Bayern Munich that emphasised their reliance on their talismanic striker. Most of United's best attacking performances this season have been Rooney-inspired and it is noteworthy that United have scored more than once in only two of the 10 away games when he hasn't scored or hasn't played. In four of those games United didn't score at all and that does not bode well for their ability to break down a Rovers defence that has conceded more than once in just three of their 16 home games. Five of Blackburn's seven home games against teams above them in the table have had under 2.5 goals and both of the higher-scoring games came when Rovers managed two goals, which looks unlikely here in a game that looks set to be dominated by the defences.

Lay Lens at [1.77] v Boulogne

Lens are short odds because of the perceived weakness of the opposition, rather than as a reflection of their own strength, which is open to question. The hosts are winless in six in the league and appear to be saving their best for the cup, so they may well have one eye on Tuesday's semi-final against Monaco. Boulogne were humbled in the cup by amateur side Quevilly and are eight points from safety with only seven league games to play, but their recent league form is respectable with only one defeat in five and they have taken something from four of their six away games against bottom-half opponents.

Lay Hoffenheim at [1.98] v Cologne

Hoffenheim are a risk at odds-on, having beaten only bottom club Hertha Berlin in the past two months, and it is difficult to argue that they are much better than Cologne on current form. Only three points separate the two sides in the table and Cologne have been particularly effective on the road, ranking fifth in the Bundesliga on away form with just four defeats in 14 trips. Three of those losses were against teams in the top six and the lowest-placed side to beat them on the road was Mainz, who are currently 10th. Hoffenheim have won only one out of nine at home since late October and they have not beaten any side outside the relegation zone in more than four months.

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