York City backers: Beware of Grecians bearing low loss ratio

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Non-League man Gary Boswell previews tonight's live on Setanta clash between York City and Exeter as well as giving us the best bets from the rest of the midweek's Blue Square Premier matches

Yet another opportunity to take on the non-league favourite live on the telly as Setanta sneak us an extra helping of Blue Square Premier on Monday night. Oddsmakers generally agree that York are favourites to account for Exeter with Betfair price [2.5] the Minstermen, [2.8] Exeter and [3.6] the draw.

It's the old home advantage chestnut that is shaping thinking again. Those watching closely will know that the Minstermen have a better record on the road than at the Kitkat - both this season and last. Ally that to the fact that opponents Exeter have lost just four times in the league all season - a 12% defeat ratio that is the best in the division - and you can see why the Boz has the Grecians down as clear favourite.

York have obviously pulled socks up under Colin Walker's more customer friendly approach to man-management and are a far better team now than the dogeared defensive disaster that plummeted into potential relegation early season. Sodje,Panther and Woolford offer class up front and if Craig Farrell can get his shooting boots on, there is potential for the Exeter goal to be breached. Stansfield, Elam et al have been busy carving Paul Tisdale a second shot at the play-offs, however, and the Grecians remain unbeaten since Xmas. That stat - the general disparity between the two teams in the league and the fact that York have no realistic chance of a play-off place to aim at, suggest to me that the oddsmaker's favourite can be confidently taken on.

In the early season, I was laying York regularly as the defence - and goalkeeper Tom Evans in particular - looked as trustworthy as the Titanic. Walker has concentrated on plugging the leaks and been reasonably successful so that a clean sheet - whilst still a rarity - is at least a possibility now. I'm of the opinion though that York will approach this mentally happy to take a point and the draw may satisfy Tisdale too as he seeks to preserve the play-off place that has been hard fought for in recent weeks.

Success rate backing non-league favourites on the telly is still down below 30%. Laying the Minstermen or backing Exeter and the draw is my confident recommendation.

Tuesday night's star game in the BSP is a relegation six pointer and it is there and the battle for play-off places that I expect interest to focus from now to the end of the season with the title already looking well within Aldershot's grasp. Both Weymouth and Farsley scored famous league victories on Saturday against Stevenage and Cambridge respectively and must now face each other with the prize of a cushion from the final relegation spot as the prize.

John Hollins has taken a while to make his mark at the Wessex Stadium and the 6-0 trouncing by Forest Green there last midweek seemed at the time to have sounded the death knell for the Terras.

Saturday's reverse contradicts that. A closer look also reveals the arrival of Chris Blackburn to the Weymouth back four. The significance of this and the subsequent clean sheet against the strong Stevenage strikeforce should not be underestimated. Blackburn was league standard during his time helping Morecambe achieve promotion last season and is a major acquisition for Hollins. I expect him to play a big part in ensuring the Terra's survival over the next few weeks.

With Beavon and Bedeau up front and reportedly fit for this, there could be good value in the [2.3] on offer for a home win. Farsley won't exactly be out of it though given their tremendous achievement in beating Cambridge on Saturday but I fancy they might approach this with one eye on the draw that will keep them temporarily out of the drop zone. A small lay on Farsley is therefore the prudent way to play.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

2.5 pt LAY on York City at [2.5] or shorter versus Exeter on Monday night.
1pt LAY on Farsley Celtic at [3.2] or shorter versus Weymouth on Tuesday night