Non-league / Gary Boswell / 12 November 2007 /

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Following a second successful sortie into Laying FA Cup favourites, Boswell takes the opportunity of a quiet midweek to review the season long league Championship portfolios.

If you've been following my Blue Square Premier Outright advices, you need to do nothing more at this stage. I'm clear that we have the right ones in plus and minus at this point and was delighted to see Torquay proving, in their inability to get anything at home to Cambridge, that they are very much defensively vulnerable to sides of similar stature.

Likewise, we have the Blue Square North satisfactorily covered with backs on Kettering and Harrogate. You might consider another point on the Poppies whilst there is still chance. I expect them to start pulling away now that they have regained their place at the summit and the odds against may not still be in play by Xmas. All my form study points to them having a distinct edge both on and off the field in this league and previous worries that the chairman was a destabilising factor are currently shelved. Imran Ladak is showing signs of having learned from previous boardroom mistakes.

Which brings me to the Blue Square South where I have taken longer to form my opinions, seeing less of this league as I do.

I've been busy taping and assessing teams, putting faces to names and compiling the definitive Boswell figures for the league portfolio I take greatest care in - the previously named Conference South.
And this season, it is a league that is far more competitive than it has been in recent years.Last three champions Grays,Weymouth and Histon all won by a street and had it wrapped up just after Xmas. That's not going to happen this year. Third of the way through and only 11 points separate the top twelve and there are still at least eight teams you could call as realistic candidates for the championship.

An ideal league to be less a tipster, more a bookmaker!

I've only made three calls in this column so far which all look accurate:

BACK LAY
Newport County Havant & Waterlooville
Eastleigh

That's a pretty sparse portfolio though in such a competitive league and although it must be tempting to leave things alone if you laid Havant with enough to leave a plus residue on everything outside the two current backs, I'm ready with a few more opinions now with this weekend's visual ammunition to go to war with.

The liquidity is limited but predictably there are current lays up on the first and second favourites Eastbourne Borough and Lewes - both of whom can be taken on in my estimation at current prices of (4.0). Steven King's Lewes were one of my FA Cup hopefuls but became ponderous in defence and lacked stamina so that they no longer convince as league favourites. Likewise Garry Wilson's Borough were ok for 45 minutes against Weymouth but showed themselves as likely faders with their second half capitulation - something that hasn't happened yet in the league but has always been in my query column, knowing the skeleton squad and limited resources that Wilson is working with.

My figures show both to be underpriced at 4.0 and can be actively laid at that now because of their current league position.

There's plenty of tastily priced lurkers beneath that can shoot through in the run up to Christmas, most notably Martin Hayes' Bishop Stortford. Fourteen points from the last six games, the Bishops are on fire with striker Greg Pearson excelling himself in the bagging of onions and goalkeeper Andy Young proving himself the best in the league for the second successive season. I want them on my side now at (7.0) or greater and likewise John Relish's Bath City who have acquitted themselves reasonably in the first skirmishes at this level and can only continue improving with the investment going on at Twerton Park. It will need posting but I'm wanting them in now at (11.0) or better.

It's a very open league (and I'd envisage further recommendations before we are done because I still haven't seen all teams. Have you ?). It's also a bigger challenge than usual but I have a 100% record with this league's portfolio since I started and I'm determined to keep the record intact!

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt BACK on KETTERING in BLUE SQUARE NORTH OUTRIGHTS
3pt LAY on EASTBOURNE in BLUE SQUARE SOUTH OUTRIGHTS at 4.0
3pt LAY on LEWES in BLUE SQUARE SOUTH OUTRIGHTS at 4.0
1pt BACK on BISHOPS STORTFORD in BLUE SQUARE SOUTH at 7.0
1pt BACK on BATH CITY in BLUE SQUARE SOUTH OUTRIGHTS at 11.0

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