The weekend all us Non-League fans wait for contains a cracking bet

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 25 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - the one day of the year that hardcore Non-League Betfairians salivate over as we get chance to bet on teams all the way down the football pyramid. Rushall Olympic of the BGB Midlands have the most romantic tie. One of several fabulous betting outsiders that travel to Blue Square Premier opposition, the Olympic play York City at the KitKat Stadium. And who's to say they won't be the heroes by the end of the day.

One thing for certain, there'll be a shock outsider or two somewhere in the 32 ties. Several Betfairians will be following an old policy of mine and posting up outrageous odds on all the so-called 'no hopers' to see how many get matched. By kick off time, they'll take what's on offer about the unmatched so that they have a level stake win bet on all the thirty two fixture outsiders. Five years out of the last seven, I've shown a profit pursuing this. Two of those years, I laid favourites as short as possible rather than backing outsiders - thus keeping draws on my side. This approach accounted for one of my losing years but there's still a 26 point profit overall and for those with the bank to practice it, it is a recommended system that has its golden years when the shocks outnumber the certs - not unusual in this round of the FA Cup.

These days, as a tipster, I feel more obliged to act as a punter's adviser and try to work out in advance where the singular profit shock result might lie for the punter who doesn't have a bookmaker's bank to play with.

Even with that scenario, my instinct is for seeking THE value outsider in a list where opinions about odds vary wildly. I've found one that I consider THE bet this Saturday for those who don't fancy the hard work entailed in (or haven't got the available bank for) pricing up and posting every tie.

The selected tie is Eastleigh versus Forest Green. Blue Square South versus Blue Square Premier so hardly a tie to appease the hardcore Non-League fans but one where odds compilers are already disagreeing wildly about prices (Eastleigh vary from 3.0 to 4.5 in places). The Spitfires jumped to sixth in the Blue Square South table on Monday night with a convincing 3-0 win at the Woodspring of Weston-Super-Mare. That followed a 3-0 thumping given to league leaders Lewes on Saturday.

Both of these results have brought Eastleigh back to the early season form that saw them top the table before dropping into a hole where they collected just four points from six games. Such wild variations in form are not uncommon in Non-League but there's usually a reason behind it and this return to their 'real' form is undoubtedly to do with the appointment of Ian Baird as manager. Baird caused a stir leaving hitherto ambitious Havant & Waterlooville and there can be no doubting that his appointment is a major coup for the also ambitious Spitfires of Eastleigh. Striker Andy Forbes was 'man of the third round of the FA Cup' for his hat-trick against Clevedon and six goals without conceding against the Mare and Lewes is sparkling current form of Premier standard making them a formidable opponent for Rovers to have to overcome to make the FA CUP first round proper.

There are two reasons why Forest Green don't inspire me at short odds in this one.Twenty seven goals shipped in seventeen league games will give the attacking minded Eastleigh great encouragement. Goalkeeper Ryan Robinson is still a question mark in goal at the New Lawn and the way the whole defence froze in the critical home TV game against Salisbury still worries me when I'm weighing up Rovers' chances.

Bigger reason though is the fact that the terrific Rovers strikeforce - spearheaded by golden boot elect Stuart Fleetwood -has got Jim Harvey's Cotswold crew back in the play-offs hunt after a mini-slump in form following that Salisbury humiliation.

I think Harvey will prioritise league form and the play-offs for his Rovers squad and don't expect 100% from FGR in the FA Cup - either in terms of team selection or in terms of Somme spirit when the going gets tough. Their superior class may tell but against such in form opposition away from home, they are a very vulnerable cup-tie favourite in my book and THE one to oppose this weekend.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

4pts LAY FOREST GREEN at 2.2 or shorter versus Eastleigh in the FA Cup

To read more about this round of the FA Cup go to:

http://www.thefa.com/TheFACup/