The Boz's Non-league Blog: Poppies vulnerable to Fleet

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 06 January 2010 / 1 Comments

The Boz's Best Bets:
Lay Kettering (2pts) at [2.46] or less against Ebbsfleet
Back Hayes & Yeading at [2.3] or greater against Grays
Back Luton at [2.96] or greater against Mansfield

Ebbsfleet are enjoying a new lease of life at present and Gary Boswell believes that they can see off Kettering this weekend.

With the way the weather is, it is difficult to have any confidence that this weekend's premier non-league attraction - the FA Trophy - will prove capable of getting a match played. A fitting parlour game perhaps exists in the pursuit of offering odds on the game that is most likely to pass the referee's inspection!

Concentration therefore on the three remaining BSP fixtures where there is at least hope of football taking place and indeed the requisite jewel of a wrongly priced one amidst the meagre list.

Oddsmakers persist in giving match betting preference to league table position ahead of current form and in this case further ignore the strong home advantage that the perceived underdog enjoy. The tie in question is Ebbsfleet v Kettering and the current odds read [3.3] a home win - [3.35] the draw - [2.4] the away win. With Liam Daish's troubled Ebbsfleet lying in 21st place on 21 points from 27 games with only three wins from 13 at home, whilst highflying Kettering lie sixth with 42 points from 25 games and eight wins from 12 on the road - I hear you arguing that the odds are about right - perhaps even a trifle generous on a superior league team win.

You who say that do not share my preference for current form. Since Liam Daish found the key to unlock the mercurial scoring talent that is Magno Vieira, Ebbsfleet have discovered a new lease of life. Twelve of the 21 points have been amassed in the last six games including home wins against top four team Mansfield and the new league leaders Stevenage. They also scored a conclusive Xmas double over Grays scoring nine goals in those four games -which has almost doubled their goals tally for the season. Clearly the Fleet are finally doing something right and they look a colossal price to me at home to a Kettering side who have conversely completely lost their way in and around their volatile achievements in the FA Cup matches with Leeds United.

It is mostly off-pitch uncertainty that has clobbered the Poppies. Loss of player Exodus Geohaghon and manager Mark Cooper before the first Leeds game followed by a critical refusal by Moses Ashikodi to continue on by the time of the replay was devastating to caretaker goalkeeper/manager Lee Harper.

The well publicised sacking of assistant John Deehan after the Elland Road defeat in extra time - after a truly sterling on pitch effort which did non-league football proud - was classic behaviour by chairman Imran Ladak - he of employing a drunken Paul Gascoigne fame. Ladak has since got himself completely banned by the FA for refusal to even contemplate a long overdue fine for comments about the referee after last year's Cup heroics against Fulham.

And so the circus continues, completely masking the competent squad that Cooper had assembled at Rockingham Road. All is very quickly approaching meltdown personified by Kettering having amassed only five points from their last six league games. They are very much an out of form playing a very much in form and although overall class might just get them a point, they are a strong Lay for The Boz this weekend at the price.

Hayes & Yeading scuppered my New Year's resolution last weekend by bouncing back to beat AFC Wimbledon in one of those Bank Holiday turnarounds after a 5-0 mauling the previous week. Ram Marwa looks a good find for Garry Haylock who has done a similar job to Daish in turning early season form around at Church Road.

Up now to 14th and looking good to avoid a drop back to BSS they can be fancied to win again this weekend against Julian Dicks' Grays whose capitulation to Ebbsfleet officially confirmed them the worst side in the league bar none.

I also fancy Richard Money's Luton at the longest price I've seen them all season. [2.96] to account for Mansield at Field Mill. Both sides are proving much of a muchness and a tight affair is assured but it is The Hatters who look more likely to have the second half of the season assuring play-offs and I consider them value to win this.

The Boz's Best Bets:
Lay Kettering (2pts) at [2.46] or less against Ebbsfleet
Back Hayes & Yeading at [2.3] or greater against Grays
Back Luton at [2.96] or greater against Mansfield

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -5.97 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.

Comments (1)

1. Plolordiawl | 26 September 2010

   so informative, thanks to tell us.