The Boz's Non-league Blog: Keep opposing favourites in the cup

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 09 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Boz’s Best Bets:
Lay Kettering at [1.86] or shorter against Barrow;
Lay Kidderminster at [1.7] or shorter against Matlock Town;

Emotionally and physically exhausted after their clash with Leeds, Kettering may be a tad short to beat a determined Barrow. Meanwhile, Kiddersminster face a tough trip to Matlock. Gary Boswell selects the best bets.

The policy of opposing favourites in the cup competitions continues a profitable activity. Always a low risk concern, you seem to get extra value out of the concept of keeping the draw on your side when it comes to the cup. Knowing they get another chance in the replay leads to more sides (especially underdogs) settling for the draw.
And thus the greater statistical incidence of even stevens in Cup competitions.

Leeds were [1.57] and [1.23] to lay in 90 minutes for their two FA Cup games against Kettering and layers had a field day for low risk. They get chance to turn the tactic on the Poppies themselves this weekend as Lee Harper's side host Barrow in the FA Trophy. They are [1.86] to back but that could be mighty short for a side that looked legless after their heroics at Elland Road and for whom the final four goal denouement will have been psychologically draining. Anthony Elding had the lactic acid piling up and shorn of strike partner Moses Ashikodi who has 'left the club by mutual consent', the Poppies could be particularly toothless on Saturday.

Barrow on the other hand are fresh from a Cup triumph against the odds. The 3-1 midweek win over Oxford (achieved at odds of [4.06]) secures them a 3rd Round FA Cup trip to the Stadium of Light and the South Cumbrian town is bouncing and in the mood to celebrate at Rockingham Road this weekend. The Bluebirds are an outstanding [4.5] to win but I'll keep the draw on my side and take on the Poppies for a low risk lay at [1.86].

Another favourite to consider opposing are Kidderminster who have a tough trip to Matlock's Causeway Lane. Mark Atkins' Gladiators are on a ten game unbeaten run in the Unibond Premier and Cup competitions and have recently taken the scalps of Boston and Ashton convincingly at home. New boy Mason Joynes looks a tasty addition to goal getter Ross Hannah up front and the back line is led by the aptly named Simon Sturdy who, along with captain James Lukic, makes a stonewall defence.

The Harriers have been struggling to score since Matthew Barnes-Homer jumped ship and their price of [1.72] to win away from the Aggborough looks wildly optimistic and plain wrong. I'm tempted again by the [5.0] on a Matlock win but will keep the draw on my side and lay the Harriers at [1.72] or shorter.

Final bet and banker for this weekend was due to be Histon at around [1.9] to win at mediocre Ryman Premier midtablers Maidstone.

Despite a glut of draws in recent games, Histon should have a clear chance to get past at the first time of asking. They have however had a sloppy season. The off loading of talented strikers before the outset and the departures of Gareth Baldwin from the boardroom and John Beck from the dressing room have meant the Stutes are not a BSP force this season. The credit crunch has started to bite but I was still with them up until Tuesday when the news of Steve Fallon's suspension broke.

The team have consolidated in recent weeks and the decision of Lanre Oyebanjo and Nat Knight-Percival to stay loyal to manager Steve Fallon has had a big impact on stabilising the club. Word is that players are impressed with how Fallon has defied new chairman's advice to lose four players and they have pledged themselves to going all out this weekend for temporary manager Alan Lewer. A run in the FA Trophy and a trip to Wembley looks their goal for this season to me now and I would have trusted them to see off a mediocre Maidstone without too much trouble.

I don't like bad vibes before a banker bet though and suspending your manager counts as bad vibes in my book. Histon may well now be another favourite to oppose!

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

LAY KETTERING at [1.86] or shorter against Barrow
LAY KIDDERMINSTER at [1.72] or shorter against Matlock Town

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -5.55 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.