Stupid price on Stimson's Stevenage has me salivating

Non-league / Editor / 19 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

It's happening again. The 'talking horse' that is Stevenage Borough is steamrollering to the title. Two more wins and they'll be odds-on!!!

I find the way in which Saturday's Match of the Day against Cambridge is being priced simply the most ludicrous example ever. The unbeaten Us are 4.5 whilst Stevenage are 1.8 at best in what has to be classed as a 50-50 encounter. If anything, Cambridge have the slight edge.

Neither side has yet faced top-six opposition, so for both it is the real test of the mettle. The only real form line we have is that both have played home to Oxford which is where the slight leaning to Cambridge comes from.

It's easy to get carried away by the way Mark Stimson's team - heavily touted and heavily backed at screamingly short odds as they always are - sit top with a healthy goal difference. Steve Morrison is the sort of striker who scores for fun so against the woeful defences, hay can certainly be made. Prudent study however shows that Borough have played just two 'tough' fixtures so far this season and lost on opening day away at Crawley whilst battling to a dour 0-0 at home to Oxford.

I may have egg on my face afterwards but I cannot do anything but LAY Borough when they are such a wrong price. Cambridge are serious opposition and have the league's most talented player in Wolleaston and if Stevenage win this by a cricket score then I'll be ready to hang up my wallet!

The anomaly of the Stevenage price is further highlighted when you look at the day's home bankers - Aldershot, Salisbury and Weymouth - all at similar odds to Stevenage. The reason for their being bankers is the opposition and this is the first Conference Premier for a long while that I can remember where the bottom of the table has become adrift at such an early stage. Without a win between them, you have to think that will change at some point (indeed Altrincham and Droylsden get their chance this weekend against each other!) and for that reason I'll leave the home bankers alone with such poor value on offer.

There's a play in the South where Garry Wilson's Eastbourne Borough continue in excellent form and can see off Gary Haylock's Hayes and Yeading but my eye has first been caught by Thursday night's offering between Histon and Oxford.

Halifax broke the hoodoo that's seen nine favourites out of ten fail to win live on Setanta. If you saw Forest Green last week you'll be convinced that this is less of a hoodoo and more a case of someone opening Tutankhamun's tomb!

Rovers were the most startling case yet as they were backed down from 1.96 to a price at the off of 1.8 but were simply never in it from the minute Marvin Brown netted. Salisbury made a complete mockery of their kick-off price of 5.4.

Will the trend continue at the Glassworld on Thursday night? Oxford are a shorty at even money and Histon are coming in on the back of a Tuesday night humdinger at home to Torquay. Steve Fallon has his Stutes firing ok though in their debut bow and the addition of Cliff Akurang to the strikeforce has added teeth to a defensive record that was largely responsible for the runaway win in Conference South last season. Erkham Okay and Jeff Kennedy also give the Stutes an edge of menace and I think Jim Smith's favs are in for another stern test. 3.2 on the Stutes looks a trifle generous to me.

Oxford have not had the start many expected nor indeed are they going to be involved in the top two title race of last season. The tendency to draw matches is back but in trying to make a case for a Histon win, one must concede that Oxford have so far only been defeated by other top-six candidates Cambridge and Aldershot. They have also managed to avoid the 'two games in three days' syndrome and may well be fresher for this. Alex Jeannin continues to exert left-sided menace and you can understand the bookmakers reluctance to take a chance by pricing home side dominance. But will you be risking the wrath of the Mummies and backing the fav? Not me.

A draw is my preference but I also fancy a lay on what must be too short a price on the Bald Eagle's boys.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3pt LAY on Stevenage against Cambridge at 1.8 or shorter

2pt LAY on Oxford against Histon at 2.0 or shorter

1.5pt BACK Eastbourne Borough to beat Hayes and Yeading