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Simple maths tells me that Torquay are too short against Aldershot

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Non-League betting guru Gary Boswell tells us why you don't need to be a great mathematician to realise that Torquay are far too short in the betting at home to league leaders Aldershot

Working out value in football match betting can be supremely complicated. If you are an Oxford or Cambridge Math first, no doubt it is as you build in binary probability and inverse logarithmic indices. I wonder if Jimmy Quinn will have his calculator out for the Varsity match on Tuesday night!

If you are The Boz, it's deadly simple. Three possible outcomes, win, lose or draw, it's 2-1 the field!!

Simplistic as it may sound, that formula serves me well as the bedrock around which I make decisions on that fundamental question - to bet or not to bet. The very fact that pure mathematical outcome on any football match bet is 2/1 makes the searching out of value easy. Offered odds greater than that - especially in a tight game where it is not possible to fathom a distinct advantage - is what constitutes value for me.

Monday night's game of the season between Torquay and Aldershot - Live on Setanta - is one of those deliciously 50-50 games that moisten the mouth with anticipation. It will be great to watch but it's a pretty tasty betting opportunity too.

If you agree with me that it's a straight 50-50 - that either side could win and that the draw is also just as likely - then the way that the oddsmakers price it up informs which way you bet.

Enter that traditional oddsmaker's benchmark - making the home team favourite in a 50-50 call. Accordingly, Torquay are offered at best price with Betfair [2.28] on Monday night whilst Aldershot - the superior team if you believe that league tables never lie - are a whopping [3.45] with the draw also out over the 2/1 mark at best priced [3.5].

I just don't get that home advantage angle from an oddsmaking perspective. Yes, I can see that pushing out the price of the draw is justified given that Aldershot have the staggering stat of having drawn just twice in thirty two league games this year (both against Cambridge!). But how can you ascribe a 44% probability to a Torquay win in a three outcome market when their opponents are the league leaders and a team who have a 66% win ratio on the road this season? I'd want at least [2.75] before I considered backing Torquay in such a tight game.

I shouldn't be complaining of course. We've already taken advantage three times this season when Cambridge and Burton won at Plainmoor and also when the Us won at Broadhall Way.

Home advantage simply doesn't justify that kind of odds disparity in this league for me when the sides are evenly matched and I expect it to be proved again on Monday night where we can confidently lay the Gulls for whom this has become a simple must win after their mini wobble continued on Saturday.

The pressure at Plainmoor will be immense and I've heard it postulated that the Torquay problem lies in transfer window personnel changes that have unsettled the side. I can agree with this in the shape of Michael Poke's coming in and establishing clean sheets and then being whisked away again (when concedes instantly start happening).

The biggest difference for Boz though from the Torquay side that walloped Aldershot 3-0 at the Recreation Ground in August is the way in which incisive strikers - Sills,Phillips and Zebroski - have lost their early season goalscoring edge. Either opposition defences have got wise to them or else the long term fitness of each is beginning to tell. One of my reasons for laying Torquay at short prices all season is that I suspected that the front line wouldn't see the season out.

Signs of it are definitely there and the bringing in of Jody Banim from basement boys Droylsden reeks of a desperate measure further likely to cause lack of cohesion.

Aldershot on the other hand have made just one addition to the squad since Xmas. The singular arrival of experienced head Junior Mendez is further evidence to the eyes of the Boz that Aldershot have the edge in the managerial department.

Torquay are a strong lay for me at the price.

RECOMMENDATION:

3pt LAY of TORQUAY at [2.4] or shorter in Monday night's Live on Setanta