Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 September 2007 /

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season).

If you haven't yet signed up for your Live on Setanta package, you are a Betfair punter who is missing out on an opportunity.

The deal to show two live non-league games each week -revolution really in non-league football - has worked out splendidly for Betfair inplay football operators so far. Six out of the eight games shown have had a team coming from behind and the other two games have been 0-0.

The policy of backing the draw before kick-off and hedging whilst still at nil-nil has had a field day. So has the highly lucrative policy of laying first goalscorer at low odds. Basically has a 100% record so far!!

Coincidence I hear you ask? As a dedicated follower of Conference football for the past eight years, I am in no way surprised. The league has become progressively more competitive over the time I've been watching and the last two years in particular have seen a distinct narrowing of the margins between top and bottom teams. There are oodles of evenly matched games each week. There is also a bias in my opinion toward quality up front and lack of quality at the back so that plenty of goals by both sides in any given game is now the norm rather than the exception. And far fewer one sided games that end 5-0 as the evidence of the Live on Setanta games so far supports.

Heaven has arrived for Betfair inplay punters! And there's more this week with Burton-Torquay on Monday night and Forest Green-Salisbury on Thursday. The former is a key game for those still working on their Championship portfolios. The Gulls have been a strong Lay for me all season but have been doing well and are now tested away against a top five side live in front of the cameras. Do we lay again at the ever diminishing price? This game should be recorded and repeatedly studied. Burton are the best that traditional non-league can offer at the moment as Nigel Clough has steadfastly brought his Albion side from the lower reaches of the Nothern Premier to the verge of much coveted Football league Status over a ten year period.

The escapades against Manchester United in the FA Cup financed the new ground and as a club, they are now ready. As a football team, they have made a hairy start. Loads of injuries have undermined the experienced squad that Clough assembled for this campaign. And so they sit fifth when they might have been expected to be top. A close look at the games played though shows some impressive examples of team character. The comeback from 3-1 down against York to win 4-3. The last minute equaliser on opening day at Histon, the way they hung on against Weymouth in front of the cameras having turned that game round before half time.

I think Clough has got the mindset right and this will indeed be THE test for the Gulls. They have what it takes on the pitch with Zebroski and Hargreaves sparkling in midfield and Sills and Phillips firing up front. The Todd/Robertson combo at the back is also a potent attacking weapon at set plays so that I expect another game of goals. It's at the back though where you need to keep an eye on whether Torquay have what it takes to go all the way. I still have my doubts.

So, a really important long term task on Monday night seeing whether Burton are good enough to win the league and likewise Torquay. What betting strategy to employ inplay? Back and hedge the draw and lay first goalscorer at short odds.That simple. The form points to it in this game as much as any other that has appeared so far Live on Setanta.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
5pt Back The BURTON-TORQUAY draw to be hedged inplay
2pt Lay the first goalscorer team at 1.5 or less on the next goal market during the first 80 minutes play.

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