Over 2.5 goals the best bet on offer in Altrincham's visit to York

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 03 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-
league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season).

Six games in is the first reliable benchmark for assessing a league season's pecking order and it looks to me like the Blue Square Premier has revealed its secrets pretty clearly already. Expect the bottom four -Droylsden,Altrincham,Stafford and Northwich - to stay pretty much as per throughout. Defensive disorganisation is the biggest negative for any team in any league and these four have the worst cases alongside York who may also get dragged in if Billy McKewan doesn't get some work done soon.

There will be those that have the Minstermen as a home banker on Tuesday night but if you saw the debacle at the KitKat on TV last Thursday you'll be keener to lay than to back. Goalkeeper Tom Evans is a particular cause for concern and seems to have completely lost his confidence.Catches his crosses ok but comes for the ball below head height as though he's expecting it to explode!

The trouble with laying York at what is sure to be an attractive price is that Altrincham are the opposition and their back four problems -whilst perhaps not as acute- are hardly cause for celebration. York also have a classy midfield potential and strong penetrative qualities down the left in the shape of star player Mark Walford so that you'll be expecting home goals for sure.

Rather than play on the final result here - which should be a home win but is far from a banker for me - consider going in on the goals scored market and take a price on 2.5 or more goals at anything above 2.1 that you are offered.

Droyslden have also showed plenty going forward in their first six games at the new level but have been woeful at times at the back and they must be a vulnerable home side on Tuesday night entertaining Stevenage. This game is all about the price though and as Stevenage are famous as non-league's 'talking team', I don't expect the 2.5 I'd want to back them whilst the realistic 3.2 required to lay Droylsden is also not likely to appear.

I prefer therefore to play in the Northwich-Burton fixture where some 3.2 or 3.3 for laying the Vics might appear. Likewise 2.5 or better the Back on Burton has to be taken as Nigel Clough's experienced and feisty outfit - whilst not yet at full strength - should have more than enough class for a Northwich side that look perhaps the most lightweight of all.

I could write for weeks about what I think of Torquay and regular readers will know that they were my king sized pre-season LAY in the outright market as no side has come down into the Conference and been promoted straight back up as Champions since 1993. The Gulls' good start has contracted their price even further so that they are now an even more tempting LAY although my advice is to wait a few more weeks as I expect them to continue high up throughout September by which time their price will be down to serious LAY potential. Their October programme is the real test of their credentials when I expect them to start losing a few. For now, they are top courtesy of wins against Northwich and Stafford which may well prove a false perspective. We have already bagged significant booty by opposing them in match situations where the knee jerkers are overreacting and I think Tuesday could be another opportunity as they play host to Nick Holmes' Salisbury Whites.

Torquay probably are the better team but at 1.8, they are definitely worth laying if you remember how difficult they found it to score against Grays on opening day. Yes, they have gone on a goalfest since but Salisbury do the defending thing pretty well and have ended their first six in the top half where I expect them to stay. They might only come to Plainmoor for a point but it's the price they are offering to lay Torquay that tempts me most of all and I'll be taking 1.8 and anything else below that they'll offer me.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
1pt Back of the 2.5+ goals in the York-Altrincham fixture
1pt Back BURTON to beat Northwich at 2.5 or better
3pt Lay Torquay at 1.8 or under