Non-league / Gary Boswell / 19 November 2007 / 1

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football

All of non-league's betting eyes will be on the FA Cup replays this midweek as the three David warriors attempt a triple slingshot across the bows of Goliath. If all three should prove successful, it will provide a record number of non-league sides in the second round.

And if you are betting on the underdogs, Betfair is definitely the place to be staking. The discrepancy between bookmakers and Betfair prices is always biggest in ties like this.

Staines [5.6] to sully Stockport, Barrow a mighty [10.5] to dig a grave for AFC Bournemouth and Forest Green [6.2] to roger Rotherham.

It's a tasty triple header and although such bets are as much about sentiment as clear headed logic, I'll be disappointed if all three go out and a level stake single looks a worthwhile play with all three having some positives to argue that the cause for an upset is not total folly.

Those who followed my Lay on Stockport at Edgeley Park - where [1.38] was matched - will have some powder to support Staines with in tonight's Live on SKY match. Goalkeeper Shaun Allway will need to have another heroic but Staines are a footballing side and showed no fear in the first match. Striker Mark Nwokeji is quite capable and if the ball runs for Steve Cordery's side, the unthinkable in front of the cameras is not impossible. Unfortunately, the history of such replays goes against the Southerners and if County turn up like they did at Brunton Park in the Johnstone's Paint last Tuesday, the class of Anthony Elding & Co. could result in a rout.

My head tells me that as a bet, Staines are highly speculative but my heart is firmly with them and because they impressed me so much at County (and won me some sheckles in the process!), I'll be with them again tonight.

Tuesday night's tasks for Barrow and Forest Green are even mightier away from home but both are coming to the game in terrific scoring form. Barrow matched the Cherries at Holker Street and have since shed their manager Phil Wilson which you might think was a cause for concern. The sacking, with this replay in the offing, was oddly timed but gave us a clue to the sudden improved form of the Bluebirds who trounced AFC Telford 4-0 on Saturday. Quite simply their best League performance of the season so far by quite a long way and to come straight after Wilson's sacking (they also won a Setanta Shield game against local rivals Workington on penalties in between times) says to me that they are a talented team who were being strangled psychologically by the manager. A long price, but with Bournemouth being currently one of the poorer League One teams with terrible injury worries, the upset is not impossible here either. In fact, of the three, it's the one I fancy most.

Forest Green are simply a League team in the wings. Seven wins from their last eight Conference games and a striker in Stuart Fleetwood who every League team is watching. Rotherham will need to play with no fear to win this one. They are lucky to have been given a second chance.

All eyes on the cup so that the Blue Square Premier Relegation six pointer might get missed. Graham Heathcote's Altrincham are on an upcurve following their sterling performance against Millwall in the Cup and have a tremendous chance to get themselves out of the mire at the Throstle's Nest where Farsley have hit a serious flat spot since the departure of talented manager Lee Sinnot. Scoring is Celtic's problem at the minute whilst Alty knocked in an uncharacteristic three in beating Weymouth on Saturday. Farsley are worth a sizable Lay at the [2.18] currently posted.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1pt BACKon Staines to beat Stockport at 5.6 or greater
1pt BACK on Barrow to beat AFC Bournemouth at 10.5 or greater
1pt BACK on Forest Green to beat Rotherham at 6.2 or greater
3pt LAY on Farsley Celtic at 2.18 or less

To read more about the FA Cup go to:

www.thefa.com

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1. ferdy | 21 November 2007

   Bet you're annoyed with that Bozo from Barrow who gave away the last minute pen. Walker and Rogan won't be too chuffed with him either cos their goals had deserved to win the game. Still a good night's tipping though and I like the way you stake plan with caution too so that the losses are covered if the speculatives don't deliver. With hindsight, you should have staked up on FGR with their win being so emphatic but easy to say after the event and if Staines do it tomorrow it will be a grand night's work! Better than the guys who staked £124k on Rotherham. They obviously ain't reading you and more fool them!

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