Non-league / Gary Boswell / 04 September 2008 /

Gary Boswell looks ahead to the non-league action and tries to fathom the failing favourites.

There used to be a theory (backed up by stats) in horse-racing that the Saturday races were framed in such a way as to make it more difficult for the likely favourite to win.The theory being that this only happened on Saturday because that was the day races were on the telly and bookmakers would benefit from increased turnovers on favourites that were unsuccessful. Which of course implied that the great mass of punters out there backed favourites blind (surely not!!).

It's a while ago since I heard that theory and those stats aired presumably because the impact of Saturday as the only day racing on the telly no longer applies.

In the pre-Betfair days i used to think I'd clean up if I was just able to lay the favs to level stakes. I kept the stats one year myself and it showed a profit and I filed the system away and waited for Betfair to be invented!

Perhaps the horse racing boys will tell me whether it still applies. I dragged the system out of the bottom drawer and dusted off the cobwebs last football season when non-league became a staple on live television. I noticed the bookmakers favourites regularly struggling to win. I kept the stat and a level stakes lay on the fav last season in all the games featured live on Setanta showed a 10.6 point profit. There have been seven games this season so far and the favourite has again failed to win five times out of seven. A level stakes lay is showing +2.8 at best prices.

Bad news for Kidderminster who are [2.48] for tonight's Live game and good news for Torquay [3.1] - who seriously need the win.

What phenomenon explains this? Are the chosen games more competitive as per the horse racing theory? In competitive races, loads of horses can win on paper and the price of the favourite rarely reflects this.

I've heard Oxford fans say (because the times Oxford have been failing favourites on telly is now in double figures!!) that their players are less experienced than league players (who are used to being on telly) and thus become camera shy! Surely not the reason for the stat!

You hear managers in Blue Square Premier say that this is a league where anybody can beat anybody on a given day. A statement designed to send shivers up the spine of those in the prediction and betting business.

And not a statement I wholly subscribe too (as someone still trying to make a living in the prediction business) although I certainly know what they mean. There have been plenty of results this season already that you could not have forseen.

The trick as always is to play the odds. Eastbourne Borough were a whopping price to win at Stevenage on day two and even though they have won another on the road and scored three in defeat at Oxford, they are still priced up as complete no hopers for

Saturday's visit to Mansfield. [5.6] on Garry Wilson's boys has to make you look twice. Mansfield acquitted themselves well in their showing on Setanta Tuesday night and Billy McKewan has worked wonders to put a side that gels together so quickly. The one team to beat them so far though is Barrow who look on a par with Eastbourne as promotees thoroughly enjoying themselves and scoring for fun.

Mansfield should win on Saturday. They have a 100% home record and a real feelgood factor to bolster the decent side McKewan has assembled.

Talking of managers, I can't leave without a word on Kim Grant's dismissal from Woking this week after just seven games in charge.

Those who heard me spitting and spluttering on Betfair Radio yesterday whilst chairman David Taylor was trying to explain how such a travesty has occurred will be preparing themselves for another Boz rant. I've had time to reflect now though. Whilst still deploring the modern day 'Simon Cowell' culture that sees nothing wrong in public humiliation (never mind the given that consistency and loyalty are what a football club manager needs more than anything from his chairman) and allows football clubs to treat people in this way, I accept that Woking are putting up their hands and admitting they made a mistake in appointing Grant.

It's their business, not mine. I feel sorry for Grant who has quite clearly been used and whose self-confidence may now be shot but my business is betting on football and I note that Woking are a whopping price for their visit to the KitKat on Saturday.

Grant had actually stopped the rot and the point at Oxford and the late equalizer at home to Lewes looked like on the pitch positives to me. What's the betting they go under the new broom and score a shock win at York on Saturday at [5.5]?

I'll wager further that those posting bigger prices on Betfair will get them matched!

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