Betfair Official Blog

Non-league

Non-League Football Betting: 28,000 Reasons to back Ebbsfleet

Click here to view market

Gary Boswell's look at all things non-league is really hotting up and two of his picks are still active in the FA Trophy. Will he look to trade out?

With the Blue Square Premier portfolio taking a timely six point boost on Monday night, it's time to turn our attention to the smaller FA Trophy investment as the competition reaches the semi-final stage this weekend. I was a little reluctant to play heavily in this quarter this season, fearing that favourites may well prevail with the lure of a trip to the new Wembley spurring them on. So it has proved, and we have as strong a semi-final line up as we've seen in the last ten years. There will be little or no chance for arbitrage on our ten and a half point pot with Torquay still in the mix.

Our two live players; Aldershot and York, have managed to avoid each other and that means it is a case of simply weighing up the football probabilities rather than the mathematical ones and after Monday night's showing, I'm of the opinion that we are on the right favourite in this competition too. Managerial and goalkeeping inexperience (those two Boz stalwarts) continue to dog an otherwise talented Torquay side and I rate them the outsider of the four left in the Trophy. If you are starting your portfolio now, I think a Lay on them at [3.0] is all you need to do.

With York as third best in, I tend to think the winner comes from the other semi final which takes place at lunchtime on Saturday courtesy of the constabulary fearing a showdown between the ebullient Aldershot faithful (with all their military training!) and the newly acquired Ebbsfleet internet fans who've paid their £35 to help pick the team for Saturday.

The advent of myfootballclub.com as directors of the board is currently having a positive effect on Ebbsfleet on the pitch and they present a decent threat to the prospect of an historic Aldershot double. Stacy Long continues to improve up front and this tie engenders the showdown between the leagues two best goalkeepers: Nicky Bull, who had a blinder for the Shots on Monday night; and Fleet's Lance Cronin, who has recently taken Bull's place in the England C team.

It's a tight call, and over the two legs I can't be sure that Ebbsfleet won't just nick it. At the price of [6.0] in the outrights, I'll bring them into the portfolio now to have all three against Torquay and a strong chance of overall profit - the purpose of all portfolio betting.

Three match bets in the Blue Square leagues have caught my eye this weekend. The banker rates at Farsley where Jimmy Quinn's Cambridge United go to cement their claim as Aldershot's main pursuers in the Premier. There's a ten point lead to be overhauled in the space of twelve games if Cambridge are to go up as champions. It's a tall order but if there's a manager who can engineer it, it's Jimmy Quinn. He needs to start with a win at Farsley which is no gimme as John Deacy has got Celtic out of the drop zone in recent weeks and has beefed up the squad with the likes of Rory Prendergast (suspended for Saturday) and the promise of full time football for the squad next season so long as they stay up. Cambridge have the class to win this though and can be trusted to take all three points with the Jimmy Quinn steel to steady them.

The fairytale continues at Westleigh Park in Blue Square South as Havant and Waterlooville have put a run of five wins from the last six together and are now seriously pushing for a play-off place. Rocky Baptiste was on fire in the commendable win against Eastbourne last weekend and Brett Poate is also showing signs of how a cup run can inspire as he is hardly recognisable from the player who stumbled around pre-Anfield. Money and confidence are at play and Havant now boast the best home record in the division and look a certainty to account for a can't score Bishop Stortford on Saturday.

Finally, a banker in the North as Steve Burr's Stalybridge Celtic play host to a woefully out of form Workington Reds.

Recommendations:

4pts, Back Ebbsfleet in the FA Trophy Outright Winner at [6.0] to bring total portfolio expenditure to 14.5 points for a projected 20-21 point return (in event of Torquay failing to prevail)

2pts, Back Cambridge United to beat Farsley Celtic at [2.0] or greater

2pts, Back Havant & Waterlooville to beat Bishop Stortford

1pt, Back Stalybridge Celtic to beat Workington