Non-League Betting: Weighing up the effects of the sack race

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 19 September 2008 / 1 Comments

Gary Boswell talks us through the main news stories in the world of Non-League this week and the best bets out there for the weekend.

Tony Greenwood at Fleetwood is the latest casualty just nine games into the season and on the back of one midweek defeat at home to lowly Hucknall. Never mind the three promotions in the last four years, mega-money has been spent developing Highbury and you simply can't go losing six of your first nine games Tony. Instant adaptation to the new level required, matey boy!

And so the Fishermen head into the weekend's toughie against Alfreton without their talisman boss who has also taken his assistant managing brother and his backroom staff with him. The fishing smacks could well be rudderless for the visit of Leo Fortune-West and an Alfreton side who are the only team this season to beat leaders Southport. One fears for the Fishermen on Saturday and I feel a Lay coming on. [2.5] will be my upper limit but the Fishermen really have struggled to meet the new demands of Blue Square North and it might take more than a knee jerk change of manager to steady the ship.

The star fixture in this division is the Redditch versus Southport tie where if The Boz has got it right about Redditch, a wrong price is likely to be chalked. The 4-1 tonking at Gainsborough last Saturday saw the Reds slip to 15th whilst the Sandgrounders steadied their mini-wobble and maintained top spot. Hence the pricing up at odds on the away team that does not really reflect the football each team is capable of. Redditch dominated the first twenty minutes at Trinity and could have been 3-0 up but putting the ball in the net is remaining a source of frustration for them. The four concedes is worrying but I'm prepared to take it as a blip game after a run of three good results which sees their current form tally greater than Southport's.

Basically, it's one of those call of faith games. Redditch are now out to [75.0] for the title and considered no hopers. Consequently, you can post silly prices for them at home on Saturday against the leaders with a chance of getting it matched. [4.0] looks distinctly likely but that's an outrageous price based on the football merits of each team and Redditch's home advantage. Their consistency and confidence are not high but if they play as they did against Farsley, the shock is very much a percentage possibility.

Blue Square South game of the weekend is Garry Haylock's over achieving Hayes and Yeading - up to second place after six straight wins - against champions-elect AFC Wimbledon. Terry Brown's charges are down to [3.05] now in the outrights. Still unbeaten and with new acquisition Danny Kedwell introduced as the patiently waited for strike partner to Jon Main. I remain convinced they have the look of a championship club in a division simply not as strong as it has been in recent years. Win this and they will start to pull away and [2.4] to do so looks about right. Hayes are a big, tough, physical side well drilled by Haylock and their fans will consider [2.5] a tempting price but The Boz is rowing in with the Wombles. It will be a season long support I reckon.

Four games to look at in Blue Square Premier. Home bankers Histon at [1.7] to beat a sadly deflated Northwich looks the nap. Steve Fallon is juggling strikers with neither Damien Reeves nor Antonio Murray a fixture in the starting line-up this season. A decent problem to have and the Stutes remain credible outsiders for the title.

Last weekend's narrowing down exercise was successful and you must have Nick Holmes' Salisbury [19.0] and Mark Cooper's Kettering - still some [26.0] around in places - in your title portfolio now. Both have tough away calls this weekend but have the defences in place to maintain a concerted championship challenge. Torquay will try to get back on that tack this weekend and their battle of the genteel seaside resorts against Eastbourne looks the other home banker. Take any [1.7] you get offered for them to outclass Garry Wilson's over achievers who have been undone each time they've come up against the proverbial class Conference side.

The final two fixtures to note are Altrincham at home to Lewes and Grays hosting Wrexham. The latter face a tough task in the wake of their off-field shenanigans this week but Grays' football on the pitch and strong home form makes their [3.0] price very interesting and Wrexham are potentially gettable at the very cramped price of [2.2]. Salisbury game apart, the Dragons have been decidedly wobbly on the road and pretty uninspired up front to suggest that Brian Little has a 'point away is ok' policy.

Altrincham are hardly value at [1.62] considering that they haven't won at home yet all season but they host a Lewes side that has been cobbled together to try and compete at a level above its realistic potential. A farcical situation at the Dripping Pan highlighted by last week's Setanta Show which gives us the ammunition to oppose them all season (ignore what I said last week about keeping the faith! I'm older and wiser and properly genned up now!) as we will be supporting AFC Wimbledon. One progressive club trying to respect the game of football and its fans. One regressive club in the hands of a non-footballing honcho. Lewes look on course to break the lowest points tally ever achieved in the Conference. A record sadly held by my beloved Redditch!!

Comments (1)

1. Daz | 30 September 2008

   It wont let me reply on the other thread as the box to write betfair is missing so replying here.

   I wasnt really that impressed with Stevenage it was two silly defensive mistakes that cost Grays hopefully the new manager can sort that out because its clear to me they have a good side who at home will be hard to beat and must have been unlucky to concede so late on on Sunday. Clearly Stevenage's defence is still a problem judged by their result on Sunday.
   Disappointed with Rushden tonight I know Altrincham played well and deserved at least the point they got but I think if Rushden had played as they can they would have won fairly easily.
   Im not even going to start on Oxford.
   It seems to me at the moment the only two consistent teams are Crawley and Kiddie. I just wonder if they might be able to start pulling away from the rest a little. Mansfield could be interesting if they continue to win away as will Ebbsfleet if they can stop drawing when they should be winning.

   ps has the non-league show finished on here now betfair 2 has finished?