Non-League Betting: Torquay to take away the taste of stale turkey

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 23 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Boz rounds up Boxing Day bets in the Blue Square Leagues.

I tend to trust form in Bank Holiday fixtures about as far as I can putt the shot. Which is nowhere and not at all. My one school attempt at emulating Geoff Capes' heroics saw me notch a throw that was short of the line from which measurements began!

Bank Holiday league fixtures are like Cup matches for me. One off games in which price tends to be more of a dictate than form.

This year's Boxing Day clashes might be an exception though. Hardly will the taste of turkey be off our palette than we are presented with soundalikes Torquay playing their local derby at the Wessex stadium against about-to go-bankrupt-Weymouth who could yet be the first serious footballing casualty of the credit crunch.

Off the pitch distractions have not been affecting the Terras on pitch form too greatly but results are still not good with just one league win in the last six and the departure of the influential John Hollins a serious negative to the quality rating from which Weymouth were drawing this season's strength.

Torquay are on a roll with just the unexpected 4-2 defeat at Eastbourne two weeks ago as a blip on their horizon.The end of a fourteen game unbeaten streak. Aspirations of a return to the football league are still high and last week's 4-1 trouncing of Histon signalled that the Gulls have no intention of shirking the gauntlet that Burton Albion are laying down.

Paul Buckle was reportedly delighted with the way that his strikeforce went for the Histon jugular and that has always struck me as both his tactical ace card and the way that Torquay play best. It's when on the defensive backfoot that they have always looked less convincing and I think that providing the Bank Holiday jinx doesn't strike and that the Gulls continue in self-believing vain that the [2.2] price on offer is worth a small take.

The other away that appeals in the Blue Square Premier is Oxford United at [2.3] to take all three points off Nick Holmes' beleaguered Lilywhites. The appointment of Chris Wilder has met with a mixed reaction at the Kassam - some rating him as the guy who kept Halifax in the Non-League top flight for so long and others considering him all the once proud Us could afford.

Whichever way round, Oxford are still a big club and it is not inconceivable - with guys like Constable and Guy still turning out in attack - that a play-off place is within their grasp. The fillip of a fresh face and enthusiastic ideas from the touchline could be the required catalyst to re-ignite optimism amongst the notorious Oxford faithful and I personally rate Wilder highly as an appointment in the context of this division. Xmas 2008 could be a turning point in the fortunes endured in recent years in downtown Oxford.

Chelmsford's second half turnaround in last weekend's six pointer against Hayes & Yeading sounded a warning bell across the bows of box seat pre-season favourites AFC Wimbledon in the Blue Square South title race. Terry Brown's Dons had a wobbly old November but have got themselves back on track following the FA Cup exit and last weekend's return to clear margins against Newport County was an encouraging sign that they are going to make a fist of it in 2009. If so, they have to defy Bank Holiday superstitions and justify the [1.65] available on them disposing of a Fisher Athletic side who are in straits as similarly dire to those of Weymouth.

I've scoured Blue Square North for the more traditional Bank Holiday coupon buster and come up with Harry Dunn's Blyth Spartans in the North East Derby against Gateshead. That The Spartans are [3.0] outsiders is based on league positions but seems to me to ignore the fact that Blyth have a 66% strike rate at Croft Park this season - a strike rate that rockets past the 80% mark if you also factor in their non-league games (if you see what I mean!).

The FA Cup adventure against Bournemouth is sure to have brought unbridled confidence to the seasonal mood in the North East and I've been impressed with Shaun Reay and goalkeeper Mark Bell in particular and think they have a fair chance of upsetting odds against a Gateshead side that have been more workmanlike than stylish in the recent run of good form that has seen them take 15 points from the last eighteen. There will be those who would prefer the Lay on Gateshead at around [2.2] to protect against the draw but I'm in confident mood after last week's 100% score and will opt for a Blyth victory as my Xmas gift to value seekers everywhere!

THE BOZ'S RECOMMENDED BOXING DAY BETS:

1pt BACK TORQUAY to beat Weymouth at [2.2] or better
1pt BACK OXFORD to beat Salisbury at [2.3] or better
1pt BACK AFC Wimbledon to beat Fisher at [1.65] or better
1pt BACK BLYTH SPARTANS to beat Gateshead at [3.0] or better