Non-League Betting: Third time lucky for Phillips at Wembley?

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 13 May 2009 / 1 Comments

The Boz previews the end of season non-league showcase at Wembley on Sunday

The Blue Square Premier curtain finally comes down at Wembley on Sunday as Torquay play Cambridge United for a return to the Football League and there's a few - including the bookmakers - for whom the end of season will be greeted with relief.

The Conference has endured its share of negative vibes this season - not least in the betting sphere - and there will be those glad of the coming summer break. And what a tough nut to finish on. Even the bookmakers can't split the protagonists for the play-off final and on Betfair we have even money the pair to be playing League football again next year.

Interesting therefore that the Betfair market has found a differential in the 90 minute market posting Paul Buckle's Torquay at best price [2.8] as I write whilst Gary Brabin's Cambridge are a more generally available [2.68]. Clear then where the value lies but finding a footballing edge that enables you to wade in with confidence is far from easy.

These are two evenly matched sides without doubt but factors that might help make your mind up are that in the two league encounters this season, just one goal was scored (an away goal for the Gulls at The Trade Recruitment Stadium).

Add to this that Torquay have The Boz's number one Conference goalkeeper (Michael Poke) on their side and the fact that when they needed a bagful of goals on final day against Altrincham to pinch the title off Burton, Cambridge drew 0-0 - and you can see that there is a good case for a low scoring affair whichever side should prevail. Under 2.5 goals in 90 minutes is worth a punt for me at anything you can get around [1.9] and trading on the 0-0 in live play is also a strategy likely to help you to 'go green' before half time.

The fly in the ointment to the slight feeling that Torquay are the value bet is the way Scott Rendell was used by Gary Brabin in the play-off semi-finals. A controversial figure all season, Rendell was sacrificed for the first leg and was seen 'doing a Ronaldo' from the bench when he wasn't brought on despite the U's seemingly desperate need for goals. Brabin played the striker psychology card championed by Alex Ferguson and fielded him from the beginning in the second leg when they needed goals even more desperately and said to his man ' go on then, prove to me I made a mistake leaving you out of the first leg'.

It's a good strategy when you know your man and it worked a treat for Brabin who is a wily practitioner making a rapid rise through the ranks at this level. He also has Lee Phillips on his side. Phillips was a losing Wembley finalist twice (for Torquay last year and Exeter the year before) and looks poised to make it third time lucky playing against Torquay this year. Other players to keep an eye on are The Gulls' Nicky Wroe who has had a very strong second half of the season and Cambridge's talented 18 year old winger Robbie Wilmott who is perhaps my idea of the find of the Conference season talent-wise.

Cambridge fans assure me that Wayne Hatswell gets player of the season for his consistency and legendary heading power both in attack and defence although he is also one of those infamous big day blooper players and don't be surprised to see him figuring in the scorers at either end!

Brabin might have a slight managerial edge on Paul Buckle who has shown vulnerability to me before and so I consider my original play-off lay on the Gulls my main bet of the day with little need for further staking except to play on those low scoring markets.

BOZ's BEST BET:

BACK under 2.5 goals in the CAMBRIDGE-TORQUAY play-off final

Comments (1)

1. Daz | 15 May 2009

   Torquay still for me I cant believe they arent favourites. I thought it was very interesting the way the two teams acted after the semi finals. Cambridge acted like they had already won the final whereas Torquay knew they had only done half the job. Also I thought Steve Fallon was spot on when he said Torquay were the best side this season they deserve to go up and I like Paul Buckle a lot I think he comes across really well on tv and it will be a shame to lose him from the league.
   Another point to add is that 3 Cambridgshire sides made the play-offs this year and with Histon and Cambridge Cit both failling to gain promotion I think it can be a hat-trick on ySunday.
   Also how bad were York last week? Stevenage won in a canter.