Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 February 2009 / Leave a comment

The Boz expands on his theme of sides struggling to win their home games - that led to a 100% advice last weekend - in this week's non-league round up.Best bet: BACK HAMPTON & RICHMOND at [2.12] or greater to beat Worcester City.

I quipped last weekend that there must be something in the soil at Bower Fold interfering with Celtic karma. How else to explain a side on the verge of the play-offs in Blue Square North with a 71.42% win rate on the road and a miserable 20% win rate at home?

That win rate has dropped to a startling 16.66% now with two more defeats including the one that filled our boots last weekend.

Of course, the 'something in the soil' was just a quip but you have to wonder if there isn't truth in it for some sides. Worcester City are the Stalybridge of Blue Square South and I make them the focus of betting attention this weekend. They are a solid mid-table team this year under Richard Dryden and have an admirable 57.14% win rate on the road. Contrast that with just three wins from fourteen at home (21.42%) and a miserable tally of just thirteen goals.

They must play host on Saturday to Alan Devonshire's Hampton & Richmond who are on a seven game winning run and have all of a sudden become the only credible challenge to AFC Wimbledon's title following the sad demise of Chelmsford's chances. The Beavers showed their ability to stick at the task in getting to last season's play-offs and look nailed on now to at least replicate that achievement with striker Lawrence Yaku looking in particularly hungry and confident mode. The price of [2.12] to continue the winning run at Worcester - where it is perhaps less a case of poisonous soil and more a case of frustrated fans - is an acceptable one.

Whilst 'the something in the soil' is a metaphorical quip, frustrated fans might actually be a more accurate reason why some teams do struggle with their home form.
The psychology of the football fan en masse is a known complex one with the widely held opinion that many men attend their weekend fixture of football for the simple reason of excising the negative demons of the week. I'd go along with the fact that at some grounds therefore the home fans are more a hindrance than a help and I notice that grounds at which I observe this 'negative atmosphere' are the ones often showing up on my 'crap home stats' chart!

I called the pricing on the Stalybridge-Gainsborough game last weekend upside down because of the home/away stats and so it proved and whilst the pricing bias for this weekend's Redditch-Stalybridge game is the correct way round, the Celtic price is too short at [1.8] to make me want to play given their current form. Granted Redditch are another side with an aversion to winning in front of their own fans but are one of the Murphy's Law teams that win when you least expect them to so that [3.75], whilst an accurate reflection of their chance, is more the price I'm tempted to take.

Better though is on offer back in Blue Square South where another of the home/away anomalies is represented in the Basingstoke-Bath fixture. This could be a beezer game for The Boz and his predilection for goalies as both sides are marked out by their keeper being their star player. Ross Kitteridge for 'Stoke and Steve Perrin for City make this a potential nil-niller and with the season's stats showing Basingstoke having scored just eleven goals in fifteen home games this season (a win strike of just 13.33%), I feel a lay coming on with the pricing up suggesting this as very much an even steven. A wrong price in my book with Bath City having a 46.66% win record on the road and a clearly superior league position. If anyone is going to win this, it's Bath.

Because of Kitteridge though and his potential to keep a clean sheet (just fourteen goals conceded at home amazingly), I lay Basingstoke at what I consider a too short price of [2.6].

Third bet in this series is a more conventional back on the unstoppable momentum achieved of late by champions elect AFC Wimbledon. They are short enough at [1.8] - but a [1.9] post is recommended with good chance of getting it matched- but no grumbles given their current form and with Main and Kedwell still in evidence as the league's most deadly strike force (42 goals between them now).

They visit Havant and Waterlooville who have just two wins this season from their thirteen home games (15.38%) and will seriously have to start playing soon to avoid being dragged into the relegation mire. Last weekend's dispiriting exit from the FA Trophy might free them to concentrate on the league at last but they won't be relishing a visit from Wimbledon and I fear the resurrection might have to wait a week or so.