Non-league / Gary Boswell / 05 December 2008 /

The Boz investigates the part superstition plays in football betting as he looks ahead to this weekend's non-league action.

You've probably heard of the curse of the Manager of The Month award. Well known in non-league circles for dooming sides on winning streaks. Jim Harvey's Forest Green reached the zenith moment in their club history in August this year by topping the Conference Premier following four straight wins. Harvey duly got the gong which signalled an immediate downward spiral.

Twelve straight games without a win - a trend only just broken as we hurtle toward the festive season. Harvey's award reward? - another season fighting relegation!
The same happened for Steve Evans at Crawley the following month and countless others over the years.

Now I don't generally have much time for superstition in betting when it comes to assessing likely match winners but it's possible of course that the MOTM stats - which are extremely difficult to dismiss - are not really superstition at all and there is a deep psychological factor at work. If you read me regularly, you'll know how much store I put on manager ratings at football clubs and a manager who is in the wrong frame of mind or is distracted from the main job at hand is certainly something I take very seriously when working out my bets.

So does the manager of the month award cause mayhem in the mindset of a man so that he loses focus and concentration? The answer is sometimes yes. Depends on the manager of course and how he treats and deals with accolades. The psychologists would at this point bang on about degrees of destructive vanity and it is worth knowing your managers in that department to find out which ones are likely to suffer from the curse. It's fair to say that not all of them do.

This month's batch in the Blue Square leagues are Steve Fallon at Histon (Premier),Ian Baird at Eastleigh (South) and the rottweiler Rob Smith at AFC Telford (North).

After the way they played against Leeds United last Sunday - and on their seven game winning streak before that - it will take the full strength of the curse to stop the Stutes this weekend as they play host to hapless Woking who have only one away win under their belt all season. The Boz's antennae is a-quivering however as that win was predicted in this blog and came at monstrous odds against a Mansfield team who were riding high at the time.

On football played and current form, Histon should cakewalk it and the [1.6] price looks about right on a home win. Will you be taking it though with the curse looming overhead and the possibility that those Histon legs were sapped by the demands of a heavy Glassworld pitch against Leeds? You might get some [7.0] or even [8.0] matched on a Woking win if you post it and Phil Gilchrist has certainly steadied the ship since he arrived at Kingfield. Sole and Domoraud are capable up front and I wouldn't rule the away win out completely if the Stutes suffer a reaction to last weekend's euphoria. It does happen.

Ian Baird' Eastleigh have already defied the curse somewhat with a win at Kingsmeadow on Tuesday night - a result that catapults them into the frame as main dangers to Chelmsford for the Blue Square South title. The Spitfires have another tough one on Saturday away at Garry Haylock's Hayes & Yeading who have been leapfrogged in the table following the win at Wimbledon.

[2.36] seems a biggish price on Hayes with that curse lingering over Baird's bonce and although I have no insight into the potential of the destructive vanity factor in Baird's case, I am drawn by the fact that Eastleigh will also have potentially heavy legs after Tuesday's win and might find this a bridge too far. Small stakes though because the Spitfires have been playing with such confidence and it is only really the shortish [2.56] available that turns me against supporting them.

Perhaps the Manager of the Month award Nap, in betting terms, comes at Bucks Head where Rob Smith's AFC Telford play host to league leaders Southport. It is another clash of the Titans with Telford unbeaten at home in the league and the Sandgrounders without a defeat on the road.

Something must give although the draw springs to mind and could easily be considered favourite in such a fixture so that the price of [3.75] is excellent value. That result can also be covered with a lay on Telford at [2.3] and although overall I'm predicting marginally in favour of a Southport win, it's not my strongest of naps. There is something about betting on superstitions that brings about the cautious in me so I will opt for a Lay on the accursed Bucks instead!

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND:

2pt LAY on HISTON at [1.6] or less at home to Woking
0.5pt BACK on WOKING at [7.0] or greater
2pt LAY on AFC Telford at [2.3] or less at home to Southport
1pt BACK on Hayes & Yeading at [2.36] to beat Eastleigh

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