Non-League Betting: The Bluebirds are this weekened's flier

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 October 2008 / 2 Comments

The Boz is in sizzling form with three successive odds against naps and a plus 10 point profit from the last three blogs.He seeks out the value once more in this weekend's non-league fare...

The game to concentrate on Saturday in the Blue Square Premier takes place at the Broadfield Stadium where league leaders Crawley Town take on newly promoted Barrow.

Now you may not be the superstitious type but you have to take note of the fact that Jim Harvey was named August manager of the month in the Blue Square Premier courtesy of Forest Green having won four games on the trot and going top of the table.

They have not won a game since.

Steve Evans got the September award and the Red Devils responded by losing their unbeaten run to a last minute penalty at Burton. They followed that by squandering a two goal lead against the now basement Forest Green for whom it would seem, the manager of the month award curse is about to be lifted! Rovers can be fancied to win at Lewes this weekend but the game to bet on is at the Broadfield where Crawley can be laid at the stonkingly short price of [1.69]. Because they are league leaders, this may go to less before kick off so keep those eyes peeled.

Superstition aside, Crawley have won just one of the last four and only remained in top spot courtesy of the opposition's failure to take advantage. They have been punching above their weight throughout September and the frailties of goalkeeper Simon Rayner have been kept well disguised. Yes, they have firepower up front and both John Paul Pittman and non-league journeyman Simon Weatherstone continue to impress but they are where they are largely due to the canny planning of bossman Steve Evans.

He's won this league before with Boston and claims 'Crawley are a far better side than Boston ever were'. Which may be true but this is typical Evans intimidation talk. There are those who think he talked Boston to the title in 2002 and I wouldn't necessarily disagree but Saturday's game is likely to be decided on football merit and they face a Barrow side that have put their bad run to bed.

As reported in the blog last week, Darren Sheridan used the tactic of threatening to play himself as a wake up call to his midfield. In fact, on Saturday morning, he went one step further and threatened to drop the whole team and play himself, Dave Bayliss and a bunch of hobos dragged in off the car park which is a tactic I saw him use pre-season after a lacklustre display against Kendal Town. The Bluebirds responded then by going on to beat several league teams including Oldham and last weekend it worked in renewing the focus so that after they pinched the lead at the Aggborough, they knuckled down and defended the Alamo to the full time whistle.

Same again Tuesday night at home to fellow bigwigs Burton and that direct formline gives you the clue to how Saturday's game could go. Bayliss and Sheridan are every bit of a match for Steve Evans and Barrow proved early doors with the football they played against Altrincham and Oxford that they were going to compete in this league.

Fit and focussed on Saturday, they are a stonking bet to upset the league leaders and the price chalked up is all wrong. The Boz will be piling in to try and get his fourth consecutive odds against nap.

Two games on Sunday catch the eye. The pricing on the Altrincham-Oxford game is cock-eyed. Case of the bookmakers chalking them up levels yer devils because Alty are at home and Oxford are the big club but if you look at the season's form, Oxford have just one away win and have looked generally very fragile whilst Alty have just the one home defeat (against Barrow in that 4-3 humdinger).Indeed Alty's RFO index figure at home over the past three seasons makes them often a tasty bet. With Stuart Coburn in goal, Moss Lane can never be described as a fortress but Graham Heathcote has done a good job this season and has allied Chris Denham and Lee Elam in the wide positions to provide plenty of service to devastating hitman Colin Little and it is no surprise to the Boz that the Robins have hit a purple vein of form. I have them odds on to beat Oxford so the [2.44] and better that you are likely to get is tremendous value.

The Live on Setanta game between Garry Wilson's Eastbourne and mercurial Stevenage Borough is another contentious piece of pricing. The Sports got a rousing cheer in The Boz household when they defied all expectation in August by winning at Broadhall Way. Positions have reversed a bit since and Stevenage are showing better form without in any way convincing that they know how to defend. If you watched Mansfield run through them on Tuesday night, you won't want to be taking the [2.38] on offer on Sunday. In fact, that's another Lay price for me. Eastbourne cannot be described as a reliable bet ever but they give value for money and the crowd base will lift them in this I feel. Scoring hasn't been a problem for either side lately so that the wise bet for those who think laying Stevenage is risky is to play again on the over 2.5 goals market.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND:

3pt LAY on Crawley at [1.69] or less v Barrow
1.5pt LAY on Oxford at [2.7] or less v Altrincham
1pt BACK on the over 2.5 goals market in the Eastbourne v Stevenage game Live on Setanta

Comments (2)

1. Daz | 10 October 2008

   Im finding Oxford a very hard team to call at the moment. They are clearly a much better side than their position suggests and they played really well in the 2nd half last night and deserved their point they got. Theres only one game Ive seen them in that they havnt played well. Getting men sent off hasnt helped but yet they are still down the bottom, but I agree that they will find it hard to beat Alty at home but if they played like they did in te 2nd half last night they might just do it.
   I dont rate Stevenage as you know and the Mansfield match could have been won by either team really however Eastbourne are even worse and although Stevenage are another team I like to avoid on this occasion I think they will win.
   Im really looking forward to seeing Crawley for the first time when Setanta finally show them in a couple of weeks but although I am concerened about the fact they cant seem to hold onto a lead at the moment I cant help thinking that they may be this years Aldershot from the reports that I have read although apart from the superb keeper of course.
   I do think FGR will finally win a game against Lewes tomorrow and dont look a bad price either and Ive got a sneaky feeling for Weymouth against a Cambridge team who arent doing well at the moment.

2. Daz | 10 October 2008

   Also is the non-league hour still on or have they got rid of it now the 2nd channel has gone?