Non-league / Gary Boswell / 17 April 2009 / 1 Comments

The Boz follows an Easter Weekend of 100% accuracy by trying to apply the same formula and looking again at the sides with nothing to play for.

Who are the best team in the Blue Square Premier? Clue, they are Live on Setanta on Friday night and it's not Burton Albion!

The Brewers have done everything in their power to try and throw away the title they had all but won by Xmas. They come into this penultimate game needing only a draw and can lift the silver without even that if the chasing pack continue to contrive to do everything in their power to hand it to Roy McFarland on a plate. Torquay looked a serious threat after the win at the Pirelli last Monday but they've had a horrible Easter -picking up a solitary point at Salisbury - and now it's only Cambridge that can deny Burton and then only courtesy of effecting a six goal swing in these remaining two games.

Bizarrely, I've been saying that it is still possible for Burton to lose it for ages now and that IS still the case. They could lose against an Oxford side who are quite simply the best team in the division at the moment and have been ever since Chris Wilder turned up and it became the- never to be sniffed at - Chinese Year of the Ox.

Unbeaten in their last seven, Oxford are top of the current form table by a mile and the price of [3.2] is a trifle insulting and the nearest thing you are going to get to good value this weekend as the layers seek to protect themselves against the phenomenon I made money from last week i.e. taking on the teams with nothing to play for. I note that all those fixtures this week have the 'trying' teams at falsely short odds. Someone, somewhere has wisened up!

So sticking with the Live on Setanta I am and as well as taking the value on an Oxford win, I intend to trade on the inplay 0-0 (currently priced at [12.0]) as is my want in closely contested fixtures. For those not initiated, that means taking the 0-0 correct score price before kick off and then hedging it back as the price descends in play. Sounds a foolproof licence to print money which of course it's not if there is an early goal. It's a strategy I do like though for those games that are evenly matched and in particular those where one team will be happy to sit back and defend. Burton only need the draw for the title. Enough said.

Can they last out for 90 minutes though? Taking the title to the last day when they have to visit Torquay at Plainmoor is a scenario Roy McFarland has been losing sleep over for weeks but I can't rule it out. They had it won at Aggborough on Monday only to let it slip again. I've a feeling the final twists and turns of the agonising attempts to get the Brewers over the line are not over yet! A Lay of Burton at [1.1] on the outrights is a tempting sort of a bet!

If Burton's bottle has been half empty the past few weeks the wobble engendered by Tamworth in Blue Square North over Easter was of seismic proportion. Defeated at home by neighbouring Stafford and dropping two points at Redditch on Monday, the Lambs have let both Gateshead and Southport back in with a sniff having seemingly snuffed them out the week before. Their home tie against Vauxhall Motors is a must win and fits the triers v non-triers formula but odds of [1.46] are posted against the Lambs and with Vauxhall a better side than either Redditch or Stafford, I can't be having that. In fact I'm very tempted to lay Tamworth in contradiction to last week's winning formula with this week's criteria being the value and the potential persistence of the wobble!

Perhaps safer to stay in Blue Square Premier where my other two games feature the sides that drew 0-0 at Holker Street on Easter Monday. Barrow scored a fantastic late equaliser to land me the odds at Mansfield on Saturday and can be fancied to take something again versus a Crawley side who have had to accept that their slim play-off chance is now all but gone. Defeat at home to Stevenage on Monday ended their dream and I fancy Steve Evans won't be fired up for this. Barrow can finally ease their fan's agonies. At [2.62] they look good value for a small win bet.

Less certain about York whose season still stands on a precipice. The Wembley experience beckons but it'll be a mighty damp squib if they go there as a relegated team. I can't believe it's still a possibility but it very certainly is with their winless league run now in double figures. Consequently [1.92] is a tad short for the visit of Eastbourne Borough who are in the nothing to play for bracket but have been the season's serious revelation and are quite simply a better footballing team than York City at the moment.

York must win this though. Richard Brodie will be playing and anything short of three points will be a disaster. [1.92] to avert catastrophe? Too short I reckon. No bet.