Non-League Betting: Put your faith in the "Bogie" man .

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 09 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

In a week where non-league football has lost one of its most treasured servants - as Nigel Clough takes the job at Derby County - The Boz takes a look at his possible successor in a round up of this weekend's action.

Amidst the deluge of emails asking whether I think the departure of Nigel Clough is signal to hedge our considerable punt on Burton Albion winning the BSP this season, I find a lone epistle from those interesting chappies at Bournemouth University who run soccerinvestor.com.

Professor Chris Brady and co. have been publishing stats all season on the performance of Blue Square managers with a view to researching the effect that a change of gaffer has on a soccer team's performance. They've come up with some convincing stuff on Dean Saunders' replacement of Brian Little at Wrexham and I'm closely watching the weekly ratings achieved by a certain Ian Bogie at Gateshead, who is a gaffer I clocked in Unibond Premier last season. He emitted the vibes that get my antennae quivering and I've been fascinated to follow his progress in the prof's weekly table where he currently lies third for the season behind Team Bath's Ged Roddy and Hayes & Yeading's Garry Haylock.

I put great store on managerial assessment in my long term soccer wagers and have already landed this season's back to lays on Stevenage and Burton in the outrights on the strength of an in depth assessment of the gaffer in charge. Bogie shows all the right signs of applied reason atop a burning passion and the Gate are unsurprisingly acquitting themselves above their station in their inaugural season in Blue Square North.

A town more noted for its Anthony Gormley sculptures (the Angel is visible from the ground) and its long distance runners - and in the shadow of Newcastle and Sunderland - Gateshead are arguably an unlikely candidate to do as Burton Albion have done and Histon are currently doing in creating a new culture in a town without much of a football heritage. Bogie is beavering away regardless and as always, success on the pitch is creating a climate. So much so that the sparse crowds that always made a visit to the International stadium a bit of an embarrassment, are steadily growing in number.

This weekend's big game in BSN sees Gateshead host Gary Mills' Tamworth - the league leaders - and it's safe to call it a six pointer. Also my idea of the season's defining game that informs the eventual destination of the title. I had thought Southport were the main players in this division but Mills' Lambs have kept them at bay throughout and now Bogie's Gate are seriously coming up on the blind side. Six out of six in the run up to this and the form of strikers Lee Novak and Alex Francis coming in to the game is formidable. Pit that against a Lambs defence that has conceded just nine goals in ten games on the road and you have the measure of the fixture.

Tamworth remain undefeated away but this will be their toughest test yet. The odds compilers have chalked Tamworth as the second fav at [2.68] and in a seriously tight betting heat, the [2.62] and greater that you are going to get offered on a home victory is a value bet worth taking. I'm inclined to cover it with a save on the draw at [3.75] with the proviso that if it goes down it supplies crucial information to ensure a profit in the outright market!

With the weather as it is, it's hard to know which games will be taking place in the FA trophy this weekend but on the subject of managers and their influence, the Farnborough-Stevenage fixture holds plenty of spice. Not too long ago that Graham Westley would have not been allowed into the ground at Farnborough after his infamous rug pull following the 'milking the Arsenal' FA Cup fiasco.

Farnborough fans are sure to give an unsettling welcome to a Stevenage side who look short anyway at [2.0]. Francis Vines has his side purring at the top of the BGB Premier and whilst this is two tiers below BSP, the gap will be foreshortened as always by the one-off cup atmosphere. Farnborough are a club with a biggish past and the signs of a climb back to it are all there. I like a small play at [3.9] on an upset.

And what of the advice on what to do about Cloughie's jumping ship? I can't pretend to be pleased about it and would much rather he'd seen the job through. There's still plenty of time for the heebeejeebies to set in to a Burton side who haven't been totally convincing in recent views and I personally don't have much handle on Roy McFarland as a manager. I'm going to have to watch him at work to form my opinion and will be keeping a close eye on Chris Brady's tables!

I suppose I would trust the Clough integrity that he has worked to ensure the Burton ship is not too heavily rocked and the 13 point lead looks huge but the market doesn't seem to be reacting to the potential instability that has been caused by a manager upping himself and his entire backroom staff away at such a crucial time.

If I was coming from a fresh, uninvolved position, I'd be very interested in laying Burton at the extremely skinny [1.93] with nineteen games still to go. That's the sensible play given that I have no immediate way of telling whether the collapse of cards is about to occur. Certainly wouldn't rule it out now and am very inclined to accept lessened profits in the position that I do have in order to ensure we don't go belly up!

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED WEEKEND BETS:

1pt BACK ON GATESHEAD @ [2.62] or greater to beat Tamworth
0.5pt BACK on the GATESHEAD-TAMWORTH draw@[3.75]
0.5pt BACK on FARNBOROUGH @[3.9] or greater to beat Stevenage