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Non-League Betting: No Easter salvation for Minstermen

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Resurgent Northwich can keep the bad times coming for York City, says Gary Boswell

Easter is all about the resurrection and it seems only fitting to concentrate during this period on the clubs doing their damnedest to avoid the drop.

No team has done a greater impression of the saviour coming back to life than Dino Maamria's Northwich Victoria. Written off as a 'no offers' in the bookmaker's relegation markets before Xmas, the Vics are now within touching distance of salvation following a six game unbeaten spell in the league.

They turn up Live on Setanta on Tuesday night as a serious form team on offer at long odds against Colin Walker's York City. The Minstermen have themselves pulled off a resurrection from the slump that saw them in the bottom four early season and are now comfortably mid-table with a third place slot in the second half of the season form league.

Understandably odds-on at home given their form and the presence of Omone Sodje and Mark Woolford up front. Both look classy at the level and Walker has got York looking a little more like the side that made the play-offs last season. Their progress to the semi-finals of the FA Trophy rates as this season's achievement and there will be a few who contend that they still harbour a play-off dream now but the five game swing required to get them in needs Burton, Exeter and/or Torquay to go on a major wobble which seems highly unlikely to me.

York's season is pretty much over and whilst I do not expect them to roll over by any means, I do think that the way the match odds are priced gives us reason to get excited. Especially when you add in the Boz observational factors that York City defend slightly better than the rag, tag and bobtail style that saw them into trouble early season but in truth, it's only slightly better! Goalkeeper Tom Evans is far from Fort Knox material in the safe guardian of the sticks stakes and Northwich are coming into this with Lee Steele and Daryn Stamp firing on all cylinders and with a distinct mission in mind.

Perhaps most crucial is the stat I've rolled out before that York are one of those bizarre teams that do better away from home. Thirteen wins from 23 games on the road last season and eight from 18 this are both better hit rates than those managed at the KitKat. No idea why that should be and obviously not a pointer to certain defeat at home but enough of a weird trend to put me off backing them at home at odds on against anybody!

A lay on York at anything under [1.8] looks value to me in this one and I'll not put anyone off a straight back on the Vics at [5.0] or greater. It might turn out to be the best example of mispricing in the Blue Square Premier all season.

Monday night's Setanta offering between Ebbsfleet and Cambridge is a close call as reflected by the betting. I'm less interested in this one despite the furore surrounding the possibility that Myfootballclub.co.uk are about to go back on their word of providing fans with a say in picking the Ebbsfleet team for the already collected payment of £35. Lots of disgruntled members wondering why they are still not getting the deal with negotiators pointing out that a trip to Wembley has been arranged instead!

Unsurprisingly, Ebbsfleet's form on the pitch has become erratic and perhaps Cambridge will be the more focused and thus the team to follow on the inplay betting.

I'm personally more interested in two other relegation clubs - Farsley and Weymouth who are at home daytime Monday to play-off contenders Burton and Exeter respectively.

With the relegation teams battling for dear life and the play-off teams both likely to play cagey to preserve their positions and avoid defeat, there's a case for laying the short pricers in both these games to level stakes. Kevin Pullein in the Post produced evidence that teams with greater need often tempted odds makers to underprice. That psychological desire to go short on the league dominant side is something I am also always watching out for so that I can take advantage when it is erroneously pitched against a long price on a league minnow who is demonstrating serious desire not to get relegated. Farsley and Weymouth have both passed this test in recent weeks.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
4pt LAY on YORK CITY against Northwich Victoria at [1.8] or smaller
2pt LAY on BURTON ALBION against Farsley Celtic
2pt LAY on EXETER CITY against Weymouth

p.s. The Boz quiz question got a few of you riffling through the programme back catalogue last week and someone spotted that the Manchester United manager for that first penalty shoot out in 1970 then went on to manage today's featured team York City. A point for his name and a bonus point for the years he was in charge at Bootham Crescent (in the years before it became the KitKat of course!)