Non-League Betting: Make sure your Green position is on Forest tonight

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 16 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Boz's successive winning naps came to an end last weekend but he still showed his fourth consecutive weekly profit on all bets and has scoured the Blue Square leagues again this weekend for more outstanding value starting with Forest Green at home tonight in front of the Setanta cameras...

Much of the trick of getting successful value in football betting is in predicting when an out of form side is about to bounce back. I had thought Jim Harvey's Forest Green were a good bet to end the incredible run without a win - that started the moment Jim Harvey was awarded the accursed manager of the month award for August - with a dolly game at hapless Lewes last Saturday. Lo and behold, the curse had one last laugh and saw to it that the defensive mayhem that sometimes afflicts Rovers had its final say. Lewes fans could not believe the 3-0 scoreline after just thirty minutes.

Jim Harvey is no back number as a manager and you saw the work he is doing at the moment to try and lift the curse in Rovers' spirited second half performance. They did it in the game before against league leaders Crawley and rescued a creditable draw.

Unable to quite manage the complete turnaround against Lewes, they still seek the win to break the losing run but it's coming and there's good reason to suspect that it might happen in front of the TV cameras tonight.

Forest Green don't have a great record when they're on TV and their home form at the New Lawn this season does not inspire either. Hence Layers taking a chance and chalking up [3.5] on a Rovers win.

Timing is everything in getting value and this is the time to step in. Two factors sway my decision and both are personnel related. Rovers welcome back Lawless and Thomas from injury but more significantly, midfielder Adriano Rigoglioso is back available for selection. He makes a world of difference to the class level of FGR's play and alongside Kaif Mohammed and Paul Stonehouse, he can ensure that Rovers will be competing on a level playing field at the very least.

They may be the class side though because Cambridge are without Lee McEvilly who starts his three match suspension for wrongdoing. Cambridge without McEvilly are decidedly ordinary with distinct wobbly defensive tendency themselves and only a Forest Green that is suffering a serious loss of confidence could fear them. FGR are noted for that and when it is bad, their defensive frailty - personified by the mercurial goalkeeping of once talented Ryan Robinson - is a real concern. Balance against that a trick over the past two seasons to perform much better against stronger opposition of which the draw against Crawley during this drought is proof of.

They are down the bottom now after topping the table in August but I simply cannot believe that they'll stay there and this looks to me like the perfect time to start the revival and for us to take advantage of it betting-wise. Cautious players will lay Cambridge at [2.2] but the Boz is going the whole hog and backing Jim Harvey to finally lift the curse.

Nick Holmes' Salisbury have been almost as bad as Forest Green. Five defeats on the trot since they topped the table so that they are [6.0] and bigger to win at Stevenage on Saturday. Stevenage are [1.7] and as the only odds-on shot in this weekend's trappy BSP fixture list, hold the frail beacon of certainty in a highly volatile and open league.

Regulars know what I think about taking short prices on Stevenage,however. And if you watched them lose to lowly Eastbourne on Sunday, you could not contemplate backing them at [1.7]. Not even with taxpayers' money (which as you know, is worth very little at the moment!). They are a big Lay for me at that price and I'm trusting Nick Holmes to fire some enthusiasm back into Matt Tubbs and Co and show us why the Lilywhites were a possible title tip just four weeks ago.

I don't often make the foray into the Blue Square South courtesy of not watching so much of it. The lack of a comprehensive view of the league is a hindrance to my instinctive and intuitive faculty I find.

This week's trawl through the fixtures threw up a wrong price, however, and because it involves Worcester City who I do know about from their time in the Blue Square North, then I'm prepared to play. Defender Shabir Khan is my star man for City and I was delighted to see him pick up player of the month award in September. I really rate him and, but for recurrent injury, am sure he would be a top flight proposition by now.

Check that he's in the line-up before kick-off at Havant and Waterlooville on Saturday. Then take note of the fact that Worcester have not lost away from home this season and yet are on offer at [3.4] whilst the Hawks have a poor home record with just one win and yet are firm favourite at [2.2]. All wrong surely and I'll be taking advantage with a Lay on Shaun Gale's perennial league underachievers.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND:

2pt BACK on Forest Green at [3.5] in tonight's Live on Setanta
3pt LAY on Stevenage at [1.7] or less at home to Salisbury
1.5pt LAY on Havant & Waterlooville at [2.2] or less at home