Non-League Betting: Last chance to back Burton for the title at tasty odds

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 18 December 2008 / 1 Comments

Having tipped Burton pre-season at [22.0] and then again at [9.0] a few weeks ago for the Blue Square Premier title, Gary Boswell is highlighting this week as your last chance to get on them at good odds, if you haven't already. Plus the best of this weekend's action.

If I've got it right, this weekend could be the last chance to get a decent price about Burton Albion winning the Blue Square Premier. Five weeks ago I nailed my colours to the mast as they reached the summit for the first time in the club's history and the advised price of [9.0] (which was an add-on to the [22.0] advised pre-season) has come tumbling down as low as [4.5] now.

Easy to go green if you want to but well worth hanging on as this weekend gives the Brewers a chance to extend the lead to eight points as they visit Moss Lane - where they are as short as [2.04] to win - whilst nearest rivals Histon have a very tough trip to Plainmoor - a game they will do well to get anything out of.

Burton can't be considered a certainty to beat Altrincham who have been hard to dislodge at home this season but who have hit a bad patch of late and won't be coming in with any confidence after the 1-4 drubbing at home to Southport in the Trophy last weekend. The Brewers by contrast were last spotted winning with a champions swagger at The New Lawn and have the enviable "played six won six" on their current form record.

Their four defeats in the league this season have all happened on the road and they have the midweek replay against Farsley working against them in the fitness stakes but all things considered, it will still be a shock to see the Robins collecting the three points this weekend. Burton will be well primed for this critical Xmas period which could seriously put them in the driving seat going into 2009 and could well see them down to odds-on before long.

Main reason for that is that nearest challengers Histon have several negatives in their profile for the coming Xmas campaign. The Manager of the Month curse aside (and it does seem to be having its say again) this week's visit to Plainmoor will see them lining up without the suspended Matts - Langton and Mitchell-King - and the need to recover from last weekend's bruising Trophy defeat at home to Cambridge.

Coming on the back of the heavy legs earned from the Leeds game and the confidence denter that was the dropped home point against York, I reckon missing the 85th minute penalty winner and ending the game with nine men in such an emotional game as the local Cambridge Derby will take its toll. Torquay can be seriously fancied to take advantage at fortress Plainmoor where the experience of Chris Hargreaves and Wayne Carlisle in the Torquay midfield engine room makes the [2.12] price offered about a Gulls victory well worth taking.

This weekend looks a home banker type of weekend with one of the other two candidates for a crucial three points being Histon's conquerors Cambridge for whom Scott Rendell has made a successful return (albeit a temporary one!). They play host to a Salisbury side who have been finding it very hard to recover from the loss of their goalgetter Matt Tubbs and for whom this season is now about survival - both football and financial. The Us will be a scorching [1.5] but I expect them to win.

Likewise Dean Saunders' Wrexham who are still on a reasonable run and for whom Bolton trainee Nathan Woolfe has been outstanding in midfield. They are [1.66] to win at home to a hit and miss Eastbourne side who continue to defy relegation predictions but who have lost seven on the road this season and are largely a side to back when they are at home.

Getting back to the Blue Square Premier outrights, I have been looking for a while for a yardstick against which to measure the two main contenders for the title, Burton and Histon. Their two games against each other in the league are coming up in 2009 and could well be the factor that decides the title.

When I tipped Burton five weeks ago, I intimated that Histon had to be covered as they look the league's most talented all-round squad and that observation still holds but worth taking note of the fact that both sides played home to Cambridge in the past fortnight and Burton fashioned a decisive 3-1 win whilst Histon were upended 2-3 in that Trophy potboiler last weekend.

The fact that the latter was a cup game perhaps makes the yardstick a tad unreliable but I'm heartened nevertheless and whilst I still fear Histon a little with four months and those two head to heads still to come, I remain relatively confident that we are on the right team. And if you are not on Burton yet, don't forget that this weekend could very well be your last chance!

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt BACK on Torquay at [2.12] or greater to beat Histon
1pt BACK on Cambridge at [1.5] or greater to beat Salisbury
1pt BACK on Wrexham at [1.66] or greater to beat Eastbourne
1pt BACK on BURTON ALBION in the outrights at [4.2] or greater if not already covered.

Comments (1)

1. Daz | 19 December 2008

   Im still happy not to back Burton I havnt been that impressed by them when Ive seen them and I cant help thinking they will hit a rough patch. Torquay have had that and hopefully the money won from the FA Cup will be put to good use in January to add to their strength. They have to beat Histon though and I like you I think they will.