Non-League Betting: Greatest challenge in this weekend's betting is predicting which matches are on!

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 06 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell tries to predict which matches will actually be played this weekend. After that, he's on a mission to find the best bets from the matches that do go ahead. Best bet: Gateshead to beat Fleetwood at [1.61] or greater.

There's a good chance Barrow versus Torquay will be the only game played in Blue Square Premier this weekend. The Siberian weather that has blanketed much of the UK has more or less missed this Southern corner of Cumbria and the Bluebirds managed to stage the Setanta Shield Northern semi-final on Tuesday night which gives us a direct form yardstick into Saturday's match.

How much you consider cup matches reliable collateral form for league games is up for debate but I find myself unable to dismiss it out of hand on this occasion. Torquay were abject in their 3-0 FA Trophy defeat at Haig Avenue last Saturday and the same Southport side that tonked them were soundly beaten 3-1 by Barrow at Holker Street on Tuesday.

Relate that to a market that has Barrow at [4.2] to beat Torquay on Saturday whilst the Gulls are a steaming [2.06]. The price on Torquay has actually been coming down during the week and opened around [2.2]. Bookmakers are reportedly taking heavy money on the Gulls presumably because the league table is being taken as the guide and the assumption is that the form yardstick through Southport is unreliable due to there being cup games.

I think it is very dangerous to underestimate Barrow on Saturday. Their position reflects the poor run of league results they had whilst the FA Cup was their main focus and I think you can discard the results of the games around the Middlesbrough fixture when Barrow player's minds were definitely on other matters. I prefer to take the home game against Kidderminster - once the FA Cup was out of the way - as the true mark of Barrow. A solid 1-0 home win against a side who followed it by beating second placed Histon themselves next game.

That says to me that Barrow can beat Torquay on Saturday and everything I saw Tuesday night would support that. Mark Boyd - a midfielder who has been guilty of letting the side down and getting red-carded in recent games - was very influential in turning the game Barrow's way with a brilliant solo effort and several assists as Barrow ran riot second half. Nick Rogan is also busy finding form up front for the Bluebirds and with them having every bit as much as Torquay to play for in this game, I think the market price is false. Torquay are a very strong Lay for me at anything between [1.9] and [2.1].

Banker bet this weekend takes place in Blue Square North. Gateshead's nine game unbeaten run ended with the 2-0 defeat at Kings Lynn last Saturday quickly followed by the news that sent the International Stadium into raptures. Star striker Lee Novak has signed a three figure transfer to Huddersfield and Gateshead net the best part of £50k profit on the deal they themselves signed with Newcastle Blue Star only six months ago. The cash will be a serious boost to Gateshead's promotion effort but even better news that Novak is to see the season out in the North East before starting a three and a half year contract at Huddersfield in the summer.

Gateshead have been unstoppable at home of late but face a Fleetwood side who, though outclassed as a whole, do come in on an upcurve following their creditable 1-0 score over AFC Telford at Highbury two weeks ago. Micky Mellon is gradually building a side at Fleetwood and Walmsley and Mercer add a bit of quality to the longstanding grit that has been Fleetwood's trademark in recent seasons. It is embodied best in 'rapscallion' club mascot Nathan Pond - a brutal footballer in the Norman Hunter mould that is little seen in the upper echelons of the game these days!

On balance, I expect Gateshead to confirm their league position, especially with the buoyancy that the Novak transfer has created at the club. Best price of around [1.61] will be well worth taking.

Final bet is at the Bower Fold where the Lay on Stalybridge at [1.7] or less is based on an observation that Blyth are battling well against the drop and that Celtic have won just two from ten league games this season at home. No rhyme and no reason to that with their away form so good as to get them on the verge of the play-offs.

Likewise, Spartans' away form hardly suggests they can get anything on the road ever again but the first win of the season away at Kings Lynn two weeks ago was just part of the observation that FA Cup heroics have inspired them to have a real go at avoiding the drop. I think they'll succeed at that and have a good chance of a win against the odds here. Stalybridge do draw a lot of their home games though hence my play with the Lay rather than a back on Blyth.