Non-League Betting: Form must be your main guide

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 28 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Boz is on the trail of "wrong prices" in the non-league football.

How much credence do you give to current form when factoring your prices for the match odds markets?

Personally, it rates pretty high on my chart - ahead of home or away status - so that when I've got a side coming in on the back of three defeats up against a team so far unbeaten for the season, I don't think I'm peculiar in weighting the odds in favour of the latter - whether they are home or away.

This is not, however, how all odds makers operate. Especially the dinosaurs of the bookmaking world who still stick slavishly to home advantage as the dominant factor in pricing match odds. Add that to the outdated 'big club' mentality that still prevails in non-league and you perhaps see why Torquay opened up even money on the Betfair markets for tonight's Live on Setanta game against unbeaten York City.

I'm glad to say that the nous of Betfair punters has affected the price since markets opened and The Gulls have drifted through [2.18] whilst we were on air with the Betfair Non-League Show on Wednesday afternoon and are now out as far as [2.26] as I pen this on Thursday morning - eight hours before kick off. I'll want to see it drift as far as [3.0] before I'll consider backing Buckle's boys after what I saw of them at home to Ebbsfleet last week.

They were seriously toothless up front and Buckle showed his managerial inexperience again after that game by ringing wholesale changes (five first teamers dropped to the bench) which caused confusion rather than cohesion and resulted in two more defeats over the Bank Holiday weekend. A mini-crisis now for Buckle to sort out as his highflyers have dropped off the pace and the only thing that would make me consider backing them tonight is the fact that they must bounce back immediately if they are serious about being top six players this season.

No joy for Buckle then that he finds Colin Walker's dogged York side as tonight's visitors. The Minstermen are not setting the world alight but they are not getting beaten either and the [3.8] that was matched on them yesterday was a wrong price and the [3.55] available this morning is still very tempting.

The boys in the Betfair Studio reckon the value lies in the 'Steptoe' bet on a 0-0 draw at [13.0] but I'm for laying the Gulls whilst they remain gettable at just over evens. You have to take the football being played on the pitch as your main guide and Torquay simply aren't doing that at the moment.

The other factor that I take very seriously - as much for long term punting as short term - is the off-field chaos that filters through a club. It was the reason I was laying Cambridge United pre-season after the manager sacking and the player exodus that followed the 'success' of their reaching the Wembley play-off final. For a moment, I thought I had this perception wrong as new manager Gary Brabin raced to four straight wins and the top of the Blue Square Premier but sure enough, the chickens came home to roost on Monday with the home defeat by Kettering which was followed by fans calling for the chairman's head.

I'm very interested in John Hollins' Weymouth on Saturday as they play host to Brabin's boys on whom there is tremendous pressure to bounce back.

Other crisis clubs are Worcester City and Fisher Athletic in Blue Square South. Both have published financial disquiet in the press this week and you can bet your bottom dollar that will transmit to distraction on the pitch this weekend. Worcester have a tough trip to Bromley who can be considered at [2.0] or greater and Fisher play host to a feisty Dorchester who will look a whopping price at [2.4] or greater.

Just as negative press causes dipping results, so positive press has the reverse effect. News of the completion of the North stand at Highbury has instantly boosted Tony Greenwood's Cod Army at Fleetwood who recovered from their rocky start to win at Vauxhall and draw at leaders Southport over bank Holiday. Greenwood has also landed the rated young Blackpool starlet Ashton Bayliss on loan for a few months and you can expect Fleetwood to be a club in the ascendancy for a while. This weekend's [1.81] to beat Tamworth looks a fair price and if you get offered anything longer, you should take it.

My boys at Redditch are this week's mega value price at [3.65] and greater to win at home to Farsley Celtic who can be laid at under [2.0]. Things have not quite come to pass yet for the Reds who have missed the rock at the back that was Exodus Geohaghon - seen plying his trade for Kettering on the telly on Monday. Owen Story got off the mark for the season with his equaliser at Tamworth, however, and providing that Redditch are able to dampen the Farsley threat that Rory Prendergast presents, I would fancy them to get their first win of the season.The price certainly does not reflect the way things have been going for each side on the pitch but rather the fact that Farsley were a Premier side last season and Redditch were basement BSN.

But that was last season.