Non-League Betting: Back the Bucks against Bogie's boys and five good reasons for opposing Stevenage

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 05 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Boz reviews an end of season non-league feast of Live on TV games...

Three finals in three days Live on Setanta starting with the Blue Square South showdown on Thursday night featuring Hampton &Richmond who I tipped in in last week's blog. The opposition is somewhat surprisingly Hayes & Yeading after their four goal second leg reverse against Eastleigh that will certainly have them arriving with the wind in their sails. No change to the tip though with The Beavers looking very focussed in their campaign to put the injustice of last season's final failure behind them.

It is far less clear who to be supporting on Friday night in the Blue Square North final and a classic is in store as 'mad dog' Rob Smith's AFC Telford travel to the International Stadium as guests of Ian Bogie's Gateshead and with both sides having the 'let's score more than the opposition' mentality, a goalfest is a distinct possibility. Taking anything over [1.9] on the over 2.5 goals market looks advisable with Lee Novak on a mission to sign off in the North East with more of the quality goalscoring he's been achieving all season.

Likewise the Bucks went at their semi-final second leg with only one thing in mind - the more we score, the more chance we have of going through and Danny Carey-Bertram has started finding the net at just the right time for the Supporters club who took over a thousand to Alfreton on Sunday and can perhaps be expected to take treble that to the International Stadium on Friday night.

I wrote last week that I reckoned the fan base alone was worth a goal or two and you saw it in Nottinghamshire on Sunday as Nicky Law's Alfreton wiped the two goal deficit inside sixteen minutes only to find it re-instated by half time as the Telford faithful seriously got behind their team. It's a factor not to be underestimated in football betting calculations, especially in these types of games, and going in as the slight underdog courtesy of finishing below Gateshead in the league will suit the Shropshire side who will get that positive feel of having nothing to lose. The crowd can I think help them sway this in their favour and I think the 90 minute match price of [3.1] is very well worth taking.

I distinguished myself in this column early last year with my pre-season call on Burton Albion for the BSP title (recommended at [21.0]) and a serious pre-season lay on bookmakers' favourites Stevenage Borough at [6.5]. The latter call was based on Stevenage consistently being treated as an underprice team which I've been raving on about for years but no longer have to justify. Simply look at the facts!

Several people have pointed out to me since that I've been hard on Graham Westley and that Borough did in fact do ok second half of the season in getting to the play-off semi-finals. Which is true but then they did as Stevenage always seem to do and shot themselves in the foot when it mattered most. A red card in all three of their final games of the season and the absence of Shaun Laird, Darren Murphy and most importantly Mitchell Cole at Wembley on Saturday is the first of five reasons why I think they are underpriced again by the oddsmakers to lift the FA Trophy at [1.55].

That price was framed when Stevenage were on a long unbeaten league run and opponents York were on the reverse - a long sequence without a league win.Since then, the Minstermen finished the season unbeaten in five whilst Stevenage scored two defeats in their last three games so the current form swings slightly in favour of Martin Foyle's underdogs - albeit that their opponents were of a lesser class rating than that of Stevenage's. More pertinent for me is the fresh legs factor that always tells at Wembley and will also favour York who have had thirteen days rest whilst Boro have to overcome two gruelling play-off games in five days, the second of which ended with extra time. Steve Morrison could hardly walk by final whistle at the Trade Recruitment and that bodes ill if he takes those legs down Wembley way.

The psychological momentum is also against Stevenage who have to pick themselves up from knowing that they blew a two goal lead that prevented them reaching the Wembley final they really wanted. We saw last year what a bummer that was for Torquay who then wilted in the Trophy final at Wembley.

My fifth and final reason for opposing Stevenage at what I consider to be a ludicrously short price now (whilst admitting that it wasn't too bad when it was first posted) is the Graham Westley factor. Yes, he's done ok this season and got Stevenage playing his brand of the attacking game but I remain of the opinion that Mr Westley talks a better career than his achievements bear out.

He still has never won anything significant as a manager (although to hear him talk, you'd think he was Brian Clough re-incarnated!) and whenever Stevenage get close under his guidance they do the sort of thing they've done this season - three red cards in the last three games. Those suspensions are a serious blow - especially Cole without whom there was very little width on Monday - and I'm looking to lay Borough again on Saturday as a classic case of falsely short favourite for a one-off cup game.

BOZ's BEST BETS:

BACK over 2.5 goals in the GATESHEAD-AFC TELFORD BSN Play-off final at [1.9] or greater
BACK AFC TELFORD TO WIN in 90 minutes at [3.1] or greater
LAY STEVENAGE BOROUGH in THE FA TROPHY FINAL outrights