Non-league / Gary Boswell / 23 January 2009 / 1

The Boz reviews life at the top end of the Blue Square leagues and spares a passing glance at those remaining non-league FA Cup heroes.

There are those who have Coventry and Fulham as FA Cup bankers for this weekend. And with the pressure off my showing a profit in every round of the FA Cup following failure in the last round, I have no obligation to row in with these games on Saturday. I simply couldn't ignore them though and rate both Torquay at [4.1] and Kettering at [9.6] possible causes for cheer come Saturday night. The reasoning is all the usual FA Cup 'one-off game/anything can happen' stuff plus - in the case of the Poppies - a whole clutch of positive omens and a reasonable form yardstick to boot.

A reasonable form yardstick for Kettering to beat Fulham I hear you holler. Well, yeh.

It requires some belief in the merits of Conference football which I consider to have been well advertised by Barrow in the last round in their encounter against Premiership Middlesborough. Yes, Borough could have been five up at half time had they taken all chances. And for an hour, they showed the gulf in class that can make the scoffers chuckle at this kind of fixture as a betting medium. The last half hour though, in a pattern somewhat unusual in recent FA Cup David versus Goliath encounters, was dominated by the Bluebirds. Rarely do you see the minnow work a way back in from two goals down but that is exactly what Barrow did and, playing uninhibited attacking football, with nothing to lose, seriously had Southgate's defence living on its nerves.

The yardstick is: Kettering are a clearly better side than Barrow as all non-league watchers will agree. I'm expecting Premiership watchers to retort that Fulham are a mile ahead of the current Borough side. I would argue that Hodgson has them defensively so but far from clear as a forward unit. Add in the fact that Fulham must play at the tight Rockingham Road arena in front of a full house seething because they were overlooked by the TV boys. And with a Kettering manager in Mark Cooper who has both a serious FA Cup pedigree and a personal score to settle with Craven Cottage from his playing days, you have the ingredients for a potential upset.

I'm laying Fulham at [1.46]. They may even be happy to settle on a defensive display to ensure the game gets taken back to home soil where they would have to be fancied more.

And Good Luck to Torquay too, who I missed as the serious upset in the last round and whom I'm hoping to have missed out on again!

Relieved of serious FA Cup tipping duty, I've looked hard at the three summits of the Blue Square Leagues for my main bets this weekend. The Premier continues to be dominated by the two best teams, Burton and Histon, who are still squaring up for a gargantuan title scrap if Histon can win their three games in hand. That undergoes the test midweek as Histon must visit Aggborough in what is sure to be a make or break in their title bid. Before that they have a must win game on Saturday at home to Grays for whom things do not bode well. Six further players released this week as the drastic cost-cutting continues for chairman Mick Woodward.

Manager Wayne Burnett must also try to motivate a depleted squad with the shadow of a further four players - including experienced goalkeeper Ross Flitney - transfer listed. Things sound in freefall since the crucial sponsorship deals were lost but in fact on form on the pitch has not been too bad (seven points from last seven games) and with Rob Gier, Stuart Thurgood, Jamie Slabber and Fabian Wilnis still to call on, Burnett does have the nucleus of a side that could still make a fist of the impending fight against relegation.

That should still not be enough to take anything from the Glassworld though where the Stutes have built a fortress and for whom there has been stability during the transfer window and the confirmed re-signing of influential coach John Beck this week.

Beck's flamboyance balances beautifully with manager Steve Fallon's laid back man management skill and it is no exaggeration to say that this transformed little village team are going to be in the Football League sooner rather than later. Oyebanjo and Langston have become the best defensive duo in the division to compliment the quality that Midson and Murray provide up front and I would expect an in form Histon side to bury workaday Grays. Best bet of the weekend at [1.69]

The Blue Square South title also revolves around two sides - AFC Wimbledon and Chelmsford - and the former are the side to follow this weekend with the latter having a toughish visit from Welling. The Wings come in on the back of a poor home defeat against Bishop Stortford last week but steadied with a 1-1 draw against Team Bath midweek and could make it tough for Jeff King's league leaders on Saturday.

AFC Wimbledon have the easier fixture at home to Braintree and Terry Brown's boys have been in scintillating form culminating in the 4-0 win at Maidenhead last weekend. Main and Kedwell have 32 goals between them from 24 games this season and at [1.5] they look the weekend's BSS banker to bury Braintree.

Blue Square North is a three way scrap with arguably Southport (and their games in hand) now sat in the driving seat. A paper cakewalk for them this weekend at basement boys Hucknall but in fact the Nottinghamshire strugglers have become hard to beat of late and have taken points off both Alfreton and Tamworth in the past ten days.

They also have eight points from their last eight games so are hardly to be considered in freefall. [1.5] is subsequently too short for me to play on Southport away from home. I prefer Tamworth at [1.91] away at Hyde but in actual fact the best bet here on Saturday is Ian Bogie's Gateshead to come in again for us at home to Solihull Moors. [1.49] looks a very fair price on a side invincible at the International Stadium lately. The 5-1 mauling of Tamworth for us during the freeze two weeks ago was my personal best bet of the season so far.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS:

2pt BACK on HISTON to beat GRAYS at [1.69] or better
2pt BACK on AFC WIMBLEDON to beat BRAINTREE at [1.5] or better
2pt BACK on GATESHEAD to beat SOLIHULL MOORS at [1.49] or better
1pt LAY on FULHAM at [1.46] against KETTERING in the FA CUP

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1. Adam | 24 January 2009

   Boz

   Great tipping happy with AFC and Gateshead turning me a nice nice profit

   Keep it up

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