Non-league Betting: Aldershot have got the winning habit

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell has the pick of the lower league punting...

The Boz bet of the Season remains the Blue Square Premier portfolio which took a fine turn on Boxing Day with the defeat of Torquay whilst Aldershot ground out another 1-0 and opened up a seven point gap at the top.

That was a seventh straight win for the Shots who have certainly developed the winning habit under Gary Waddock and can win again on Saturday away at Grays where a price of [2.3] or greater should be taken.

Developing that winning habit is a managerial necessity for league championship success and to my mind, Paul Buckle showed his inexperience in the lead up to Xmas when he fielded a weakened Torquay side in the Setanta Shield game at St Albans. An understandable strategy you might think - in view of the critical Christmas period coming up - to rest players in a competition you want to get out of and save them for the Devon Derbies that may make or break the Gulls' season.

Whilst squad rotation (or mollycoddling as Ron Atkinson calls it) might work at League Premiership level (but does it really??), I've seen it come unstuck at non-league level before where lesser quality players thrive on the match by match confidence and team spirit that win after win brings, and Paul Buckle paid the price of an unearned defeat as his full strength Gulls got a mauling at St James' and only narrowed it to a 4-3 scoreline after Exeter went down to 10 men.

The reverse tie on New Years Day will be a mammoth game for Torquay now but their defence continues to creak as Boz has pointed out numerous times and before that they must ensure they don't lose further ground by getting three points at Woking on Saturday.

It's a must win if the Gulls are to stay in the race but I fancy a lay at around [2.0] as they attempt to pick themselves up and ensure that Christmas is not the same sort of season-turning disaster that it was for favourites Oxford last season.

We have a 30+ point profit in the portfolio on Aldershot along with Burton and Cambridge who remain the two main dangers in my eyes and who must play each other on Saturday. A pivotal game for them both with Burton seeking revenge for the defeat at the Pirelli just a few weeks back. I'm prepared to back them at [3.2] or greater to achieve it as Nigel Clough attempts a nine point Xmas haul to get his slightly faltering Albion side back into the race. Cambridge are mighty difficult to beat at the Abbey but have one eye on their upcoming FA Cup game against Wolves and are thus worth opposing in this.

At the other end of the table, there is value in opposing Rushden and Diamonds at any kind of odds-on price as they play host to a Northwich Victoria side who are seriously rallying now after their awful start to the season. Dino Maamria has lived life in the Conference for over a decade and is proving a considerable success in his first managerial job to get the Vics off the foot for the first team this season.

The Blue Square South Nap this weekend is for Francis Vines' Basingstoke - who are very much the form team in the league - to win away at Bognor whilst in Blue Square North, the Northwich equivalent are Hucknall Town who have gone on a fantastic run after initial flounderings at the foot and can win again this Saturday at home to Gainsborough Trinity.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
3pt LAY on Rushden & Diamonds at [2.0] or less against Northwich Victoria
1pt LAY on Torquay at [2.0] or less against Woking
2pt BACK on Basingstoke to beat Bognor
2pt BACK on Hucknall to beat Gainsborough
1.5pt BACK on Aldershot to beat Grays at [2.3] or greater
1pt BACK on Burton Albion to beat Cambridge at [3.2] or greater