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Non-league Betting: A weekend tailor-made for "home banker" backers

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Gary Boswell talks Non-League football where there are a handful of short-priced home bankers worth getting on and a potential upset on the cards as Woking visit Mansfield.

Most of this week's results predictions in Blue Square matches are odds-on home bankers which always puts me off betting a bit. Where's the fun in backing certainties? When they win of course. I've found three in the Premier, Three in the North and One in the South and to round them up quickly, it's Grays to beat Lewes, Kettering to beat Northwich and Kidderminster to beat Barrow in the Premier. In the North, Tamworth ought to give Hyde a hiding, Southport should smother Solihull and the resurgent Hinckley will have too much for Burscough. In the South, Garry Haylock's Hayes & Yeading - who won a notable early season six pointer against AFC Wimbledon and should therefore be kept an eye on in outright markets -can out think Braintree.

It's a short price seven timer which could reap some dividend but all selections will be steaming odds-on and in truth didn't take much finding. I leave it to individuals to decide whether they are worth backing singly but it's a fairly confident profitmaker in that department and the only one I might leave out of the strategy is Kidderminster.

The Harriers have swooped since I tipped them at 25/1 for the title at the start of September. Best price [11.0] now on the Betfair outright and on the face of it, a rock solid chance to take advantage of Barrow's slump in form on Saturday. The Bluebirds have lost four on the trot and heads have gone noticeably down as the slight gap in class has finally been exposed. In truth, it's just a few individual errors that have been costing - not least from cocky keeper Tim Deasy.

It's the first real test for rookie managers Bayliss and Sheridan. As everyone knows, it's not how you handle success but how you handle failure. After close on twelve months of unbridled success, here comes the first taste of failure and Darren Sheridan has responded by picking himself for the team on Saturday. It's a tactic that worked wonders when needed last season. The guy still possesses class on the field and a motor mouth to boot. It may be just the tonic required to re-inspire a Bluebird side that has looked distinctly jaded in recent weeks. Kidderminster and odds on backers beware.

Despite the above, I'm too much a fan of the class that Kidderminster have been showing this season to go against them on Saturday. I've looked elsewhere for the value bet and ended up with Woking at [6.0] to win at Mansfield. It's a speculative one as there can be no doubting the Stags' incredible start to the season. Billy McKewan did the equivalent of the rabbit out of a hat trick in putting together this side to click so quickly. Coming from two down at Ebbsfleet on opening day was the first sign and they've continued with good goalscoring consistency ever since. I doubted Mark Stallard's ability to perform at this level at his age. He makes Methusalah look like a spring chicken but he's been banging in the goals. Unbeaten still at Field Mill whilst Woking have yet to win on the road. Hence the mark-up of course.

Woking will win away soon though and are worth following now that the dust of Kim Grant's exit has settled. His other half Phil Gilchrist was formally confirmed in the managerial post this week after fashioning three home wins in the last four games. Just what the doctor ordered. The 1-0s against Histon and Salisbury were the clue to how Gilchrist has got the Cards playing and Guiseppe Sole and Wilfrid Dormoraud are given a couple of chances a game whilst the rest of the strategy is about stopping the other side scoring.

Hard to say for sure how that will work against Mansfield who are rampant up front with Nathan Arnold a particular handful. It is at the back that the Stags can wobble despite Alan O'Hare looking to cut the mustard after seven years in League football with Chesterfield.

The off field uncertainty surrounding points deduction and unregistered players is my main reason for wanting to take Mansfield on this weekend. They dropped their 100% home record two weeks ago and are vulnerable again I feel against a Woking side back full of confidence. Gung Ho backers might post [7.0] and bigger on a Woking win with a chance of getting it matched whilst cautious punters might look to lay Mansfield at [1.7] or less to keep the distinctly possible draw on their side.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND:

0.5pt BACK on Woking to beat Mansfield at any price you can get over [6.0]
1pt LAY on Mansfield at [1.7] or less
1pt BACKS of Grays,Kettering,Tamworth,Southport,Hinckley and Hayes