Non-League Betting: A weekend for the outsiders

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 13 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell has bad news for fans of the so-called "home bankers" and good news for those happy to put their faith in outsiders away from home. Best bet: LAY CAMBRIDGE at [2.08] or less against Mansfield.

I started this weekend's trawl through the Blue Square league fixtures from my usual perspective of looking for reasons to expect a result against the book and have been amazed by how many I've come up. All seem worthy of a punt. In fact, if you are a favourite backer, I can only recommend three. Ian Bogie's Gateshead remain in fine fettle and they should take advantage of a woeful Burscough side who simply cannot win at home.

Bogie got the January manager of the month award though and his name might be the clue to why I'm disinclined to take [1.57] about them. Home bankers Kidderminster should account for Northwich on Sunday but will be sensationally short price to do so and Chelmsford simply have to beat hapless Dorchester - who may actually not be able to field a team - if they are to get back into the title race in Blue Square South.

So them's the three short priced bankers but I'm personally much more interested in the big priced away shots and there are five I can make a decent case for in Blue Square Premier alone:

Number one is Barrow who visit a Kassam where Chris Wilder has the Us a-purring.

Bayliss and Sheridan are a match for Wilder however in the managerial stakes and the Bluebirds are fully focussed now that FA Cup considerations are dealt with. I fancied them strongly last weekend against the odds. That bet was scuppered by Torquay's bus being unable to get out of Devon and Weymouth got the chance to trounce the Gulls on Tuesday night instead.

Barrow are long to me at [7.2] and that might get even longer as the fixture nears but I point you to the visit the Bluebirds made to Kidderminster earlier in the season where they fashioned a 0-1 raid at fortress Aggborough. I've seen them in similar mode in recent weeks and my antennae is definitely a-quivering on this one.

Likewise Grays who are a monster [7.6] to win at the Racecourse where Saunders' Dragons were recently unable to see off basement boys Northwich. Grays don't have a great away record but have beaten Ebbsfleet and York in their battle against the drop and also show excellent in the current form chart with ten points from the last six games.

I don't like keep banging on about Torquay's frailties but they can't buy a goal at the moment and they host Altrincham at Plainmoor after their dispiriting loss there on Tuesday night. The Robins show up even better than Grays on the current form chart with just one recent defeat and at [7.0] are another belting price.

Not as belting as Lewes though who come in at [10.0] to win at Nene Park. Okay so I must have gone off my rocker now to be start recommending Lewes but in fact the Rooks - although clearly going back down where they belong - have not been losing badly in recent games and now face another side in Rushden who simply can't buy a win at the moment. Garry Hill's resignation points you to where Rushden are at as a team and although they now benefit from the new gaffer factor, are you comfortable backing them at [1.42] when they have failed to win any of their last six?

The pricing up is on club reputation alone in all four of these fixtures whereas form shows all four outsiders to be in with a shout and I leave it to you to decide whether the best play is to lay the short price favs or take a level price BACK on the four monster ways. Only one has to win to make a profit!

My best bet this weekend is none of the above. That honour goes to David Holdsworth's Mansfield who are another stonking away price of [4.2] to continue their stunning revival at Gary Brabin's Cambridge. Holdsworth has seriously sorted out the Stags' defence and four wins and a draw in his five games in charge with just three goals conceded in their last six tells you what he has done. O'Connor and Blackwood provide menace up front and they are a side currently playing an excellent version of shut up shop. Laying Cambridge at [2.08] or less is my best bet of the weekend.