Non-league / Gary Boswell / 12 May 2010 / 1

Gary Boswelll looks ahead to the BSP play-off final on Sunday with a place in League Football up for grabs. There are concerns over the state of the pitch once again in a match that's extremely hard to call and could well be settled by the single goal.

There are those who reckon the Wembley car park is a better playing surface for football than the pitch .I'm not sure about the so called altar of football which also has deafening acoustics designed to assault rather than please the ears, as I found when trying to commentate for Betfair Radio there two seasons ago. Last week's FA Trophy final saw more slipping and sliding on the turf that made December's frozen pitches a good training ground for what Oxford and York have to overcome to win the prized place back in the Football League on Sunday in non-league football's final curtain call of the 09/10 season.

Those who followed my strong urge to lay Luton a couple of weeks ago might be tempted to keep the winnings in the satchel in this BSP play-off competition because the match outcome on Sunday is spectacularly hard to call. Oddsmakers are giving it to Chris Wilder's Oxford who are [2.4] to win in 90 minutes whilst it's [3.4] the draw and [3.1] The Minstermen. That makes the draw the value bet and Martin Foyle's York a better decisive outcome simply because my book has it as close to [3.0] the three outcomes as you could possibly expect in any football match.

Oxford do have the slight edge in the respective league encounters this season with a 2-1 win at the Kassam whilst the return at Bootham Crescent was the sort of tight 1-1 draw that you can expect on Sunday in front of the Sky cameras.

My first instincts were to look at the 1-0 correct score prices in such a tight game - which are around [10.0] and [11.0] - as there is a popular perception of York City as the epitome of that shut up shop and nick a winner type side. Closer investigation of the stats however shows only two 1-0s at home all season in the league although a telling six on the road where they have definitely gone out to keep a clean sheet first and then see what they could nick. Will they treat this as an away game mentally? Fair chance of it I'd say and more fuel to this approach was the two games against Luton in the semis which both finished with that outcome.

Oddly enough, it is in fact Oxford who have the greater incidence of 1-0 wins this season with five home and five away in the league but it is also they who have the greater goals scored record and least conceded record which adds further fuel I guess to making them the marginal favs.

The value on York was probably to be found in their [5.5] price on the outrights before the Luton games although [2.2] to be promoted now is still the better call for me than [1.8] Oxford rating, this a straight 50-50 match. It will depend on how Mark Creighton contains Richard Brodie and how Dave McGurk manages James Constable and both things may in the end depend on who handles the day better.

Another slight edge might be York's appearance in the FA Trophy final last year. Acclimatisation to the Wembley experience has been a factor in recent BSP play-offs.

So how to bet? All the possibilities are there with it being live on Sky. Penalties and red cards is a big possible as it was in last week's tight Trophy final and although I'm tempted by the under 1.5 goals market it is with some trepidation as both Oxford and York have the potential for a big score on any given day and both finished the season in fine scoring form. That said. both are also excellent at keeping clean sheets.

In the end I'm going to sit on most of my Laying Luton and Backing Barrow winnings of the last two weeks and admit that this one is much too hard for the likes of me to call. Rather than the Under 1.5 market I'll have a minimum stakes play on the correct score spread but with no inclination of who might win. I'll take 0-0 and 1-0 either way as three small stakes bets because I just favour the low scorer.

Mainly I'll be watching how the losers handle the day as research for next season's BSP campaign!

Recommended Bets:

Back 0-0 at [9.0]; 1-0 at [8.0] and 0-1 at [9.0] to level stakes.

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1. Daz | 12 May 2010

   I agree it is tough to call but by all accounts Oxford were back to their best against Rushden and that might be enough. Lets just hope for a better game than the Trophy final and one which isnt runined by the ref and a disgraceful challange and a nasty injury

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