Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Gary Boswell brings you another blast of Blue Square betting

The Boz’s three bets for the weekend
Lay Luton at [1.46] or shorter against Barrow
Lay Gloucester City at [2.6] or shorter against Workington
Lay Luton (10 pts) at [4.5] or shorter in the Blue Square Premier outrights

It's very early in the season for defining moments but I'm pretty sure we've just had one in BSP as Oxford ended Luton's unbeaten start as a non-league side in front of a record 10,663 crowd at the Kassam. As touted, it was an excellent game and the conclusions to be drawn from it are very clear for The Boz:

1. Luton were a small pre-season lay as I cast doubt on their price claiming it to be far too short for a side that had yet to learn what Non-League football is all about. That proved a correct call and with their lay price still at [4.5] (and lower to small money), they are now a massive Boz lay in the title betting.

It's not just this defeat of course but their tendency in the first nine games to draw when they needed to win - most notably the 0-0 at home to Chester (who really are a basement club after all) and the 1-1 away at Salisbury last weekend. They have also only squeaked wins against Forest Green and Gateshead and all the signs are there that this season will be a learning curve for them both as a club and as a team. I wouldn't write them out as possible play-off promotion candidates as they get the hang of things second half of the season but I'll be amazed if they go on to be champions from here. Twenty per cent of the season has gone and already a seven point gap has opened. Oxford simply look to have much more the Championship credential and the game at the Kassam endorsed it.

2. I sort of missed the boat on backing Oxford who were a short or a long [5.0] pre-season depending on which way you look at it. They are now a best price [2.5] after Tuesday night and I leave it to you to decide whether they are worth a back at that price. Goalkeeper Ryan Clarke is looking an inspired transfer for Chris Wilder. He has relegated stalwart stopper Billy Turley to the bench on merit and was the catalyst for keeping the two goal lead the Us opened up early intact against Luton. The Jamie Cook signing also looks tremendous business for the Us who really have used the Whitehead money wisely and are showing signs that boardroom ructions of previous seasons are calming down. It's too soon to forecast that the meltdown of 2006 won't happen again but if you are part of the Kassam faithful, there is genuine reason for optimism at last. This looks a title-winning side to the Boz and I won't be opposing them too seriously in match betting from herein unless a wheel or two starts to look a bit wonky!

3. Because the Oxford price is not really backable for me now and I'll take my profits instead from laying Luton, I still have half an eye on the fact that with 37 games to go, there could be an outsider waiting in the wings. And an outsider is always an attractive proposition for The Boz! The good news is that after nine games, that outsider looks most likely to be Kettering who are already in my portfolio at the pre-season price of [26.0].

The fascinating relationship between eccentric and outspoken chairman Imraan Ladak and totally first class football manager Mark Cooper seems to be working in these early stages. The Poppies look the second best side in the league to my eyes at the moment and the acquisition of Moses Ashikodi before the deadline has already reaped rewards as a glut of goals ensued. Draws against Luton and Oxford on the board already and only a defeat at home to AFC Wimbledon to blot the copybook. They have a next six games that includes winnable home games against Barrow and Ebbsfleet and away visits to Hayes and Eastbourne (and away form has been their main fillip so far) so that 11 or 12 points from the next six looks imminently gettable and they could enter October as the main dangers should Oxford start slipping up.

The Blue Square Premier portfolio looks in good shape for a sixth consecutive season of profit!

My match betting is not going so well so I'm keeping it very tight this weekend and recommending just two lays with minimal risk involved in an attempt to get myself back to the early season form that seems to have totally deserted me!

The first lay won't surprise you. Luton Town are a screaming [1.46] to bounce back from Tuesday night's defeat with a win against Barrow at Kenilworth Road on Saturday. Barrow were mullered 1-6 at home to Rushden last weekend so unsurprisingly the oddsmakers are giving them no chance and it's these kind of games that define whether a gambler or a predictor you be. Every pundit I've spoken to has Luton as a home banker. They simply cannot get beat. Last season's Wembley winners on their home turf against a lowly non-league side who get battered 6-1 at home the week before. An absolute certainty surely.

Well, Luton might win but they are not [1.46] shots in The Boz's book. I think the psychological hangover of being unable to overcome Oxford will prey on the Hatter's minds. They knew how important that game was and they threw the kitchen sink at Oxford second half and got no reward. That sort of effort is very draining.

Balance that against a Barrow side who got a severe dressing down on Saturday from an effective management duo who have demonstrated their ability to make their teams bounce back before. They kept a clean sheet against a good York attack on Tuesday night and they'll be playing for their managers to achieve same again on Saturday as they did against the odds at Cambridge on opening day. Luton couldn't score at home against a Chester side who came for a point and Barrow are similar defensively. The defeat against Rushden was a one-off and it's a good bet it won't be repeated on Saturday. With such little risk involved, I'm a big layer of Luton on Saturday. Totally dictated by the wrong price. Gambler not predictor me!

Second Lay is in Blue Square North where I will take on a Gloucester City side who had their own amazing six goal haul away at Corby two weeks back but have the unenviable record of four home games - four defeats. This can perhaps be explained by the fact that the floods of two years ago means that home games are still played on Cirencester's ground -a hardly ideal scenario for a side in their first season at the new level.

They play host on Saturday to a Workington side that I've spied improving in the past 10 days. They played well to hold and almost beat Ilkeston last Saturday and were desperately unlucky not to bag all three points against Alfreton on Tuesday night - a wicked deflection being the only thing to defeat goalkeeper Tony Caig. The Reds will be without suspended Lee Andrews and Tony Hopper for the trip South but that is counterbalanced by two young Carlisle loanees, Tom Aldred and Andy Cook coming into the side. Both had excellent games Tuesday night and will cause problems for a home side who can be reasonably safely laid at the shortish price of [2.6].

The Boz's three bets for the weekend
Lay Luton at [1.46] or shorter against Barrow
Lay Gloucester City at [2.6] or shorter against Workington
Lay Luton (10 pts) at [4.5] or shorter in the Blue Square Premier outrights

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -4.65 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.

Tags: Barrow, Blue Square North, Blue Square Premier, Kettering, Luton, Moses Ashikodi, Oxford, Workington