Non-league Betting: You'd have to be mad as a Hatter to back Luton

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 10 August 2010 / 14

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Punters on Betfair make their feelings clear as regards Luton's price to win the division

"Nothing on earth would induce me to take them at [4.0] but astonishingly, the oddsmakers have been lured by all the big club hype again and despite starting this season as failures, their price has contracted."

Gary Boswell tells us why Luton Town's price is all wrong to win the BSP this season and where the far better value lies....

Before the start of last season's Conference Premier, you were offered Luton Town at [4.0] to win the league and if you followed this column you were quids in by refusing to back at that price and laying heftily instead. The rationale then was that the Hatters were unproven in the division and this is a league traditionally very tough to win at first ask. No matter how big a club you are or what size of fan base you can boast. Just ask Oxford United who are out of it at last but never regained their League status as non-league champions.

To my simple thinking formula, the price of [4.0] represents the realistic chance of three other teams winning the league ahead of you. My shortlist last year had ten and this year has eight so arguably I'd want [9.0] before contemplating backing Luton before a ball is kicked and perhaps a little more given that they now have the form of failing to win the division and disgracing themselves in the play-offs (for which the club must take some responsibility despite all attempts to shelve it).

Yes, they now have a manager who has some experience of what it takes in this division and last season's effort was often indicative of a side misplaced in non-league football. They beat the minnows like a league team on a regular basis. But still the table does not lie and they fell short - well short I'd say for a [4.0] shot - and you'd want to see serious changes over the summer to be taking that price again. Signings include Adam Murray from Oxford, Danny Crow from Cambridge and most significantly, Andy Drury from Stevenage but none of those address for me the reason that Luton did not fly away with the title last year. Against the top sides, their defensive capabilities were always exposed and it looks to me like a good chance they will be again.

Nothing on earth would induce me to take them at [4.0] but astonishingly, the oddsmakers have been lured by all the big club hype again and despite starting this season as failures, their price has contracted. They can be laid this season at the handsome price of [3.05]. Now they'd seriously have to have improved over the summer to justify that price to me.The game I watched saw them get stuffed 3-0 by Conference North favourites Alfreton Town! All the usual excuses were trolled out after the game about summer friendlies but just like when I saw them last season on numerous occasions, the Hatters were all about lots of pretty play creating chance after chance that failed to get buried and was punished by sloppy defence at the other end. Bit of an English disease you might say?!!

Or should that be a Southern English disease? It has not escaped my notice that there is a trend for the clubs around where I live - high on the North West coast of England - for football clubs to currently thrive. I've watched local clubs Morecambe, Accrington and Carlisle get promotion to the football league in recent years and last season saw Barrow win the FA Trophy and Southport, Fleetwood and of course Blackpool get rather serious promotions. Add to that the lower tiers I watch where Kendal Town and Lancaster City are also on an upcurve.Workington made the BSN play-offs and thus you have the remarkable stat that no football club within a sixty mile radius of my house is underachieving at the moment. Coincidence?

Both Barrow and Fleetwood are on my pre-season back list - the former at the princely price of [110.0] and the latter at around [37.0]. The Bluebirds have a tough first six games on paper and have been struggling through the summer with injuries and signings going astray but managers Darren Sheridan and Dave Bayliss are being very patient and look to me set to build on the brilliant cup achievements of last season.They proved their potential by big game wins against league promotees Oxford and Stevenage. League consistency has alluded them in the top tier up to now but at that price, I'll wager that could be about to change as the league becomes this year's focus.There is now cup lucre in the coffers - the first time for many a long year that Barrow have not started a season in the red.

Fleetwood's money is of the invested rather than earned variety and so is a little less stable but no less serious. A summer visit to Highbury had me mighty impressed with the ongoing ground developments (first time I've been treated to plasma screen replays in the gents at a non-league ground!) and on-pitch activity was also top grade. Midfield ace Ian Craney is a superb signing and home grown winger Jamie Mullan certain to menace many a defence this coming season. Exciting times ahead for the Cod Army who also look a first day wager at Rushden and Diamonds, who can be laid at around [2.0], now that star man Lee Tomlin has been lured away.

THE BOZ's BEST BETS:

5pt LAY on LUTON TOWN at [3.05] in the BSP outrights
1pt BACK on BARROW at [110.0] or greater in the BSP outrights
0.5pt BACK on FLEETWOOD at [37.0] or greater in the BSP outrights

1pt LAY on RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS at around [2.0] in opening day match bet against FLEETWOOD TOWN

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Gerry Callaghan | 10 August 2010

The Town's price is ridiculous and I'll be laying us but I think you've been unduly harsh. Luton's goal difference last season of +44 was only bettered by champions (grrrrr...) Stevenage who scored just one goal against Luton and that in the Kenilworth Road defeat that presaged the departure of legend of a player but bell end of a manager Mick Harford.

His replacement Richard Money - AKA Dickie Dosh - has now fashioned his own side and had it not been for the lackadaisical and spluttering first half of last season I have now doubt that the hatters would have made Stevenage sweat a hell of a lot more in the run-in.

In short, the town HAVE seriously have indeed improved over the summer. The defeat by Alfreton has to be viewed in context with victories against Liverpool and Newcastle XIs.

The same points you made about the transition from football league to the Conference will apply to Darlington and Grimsby. York rely too much on Brodie for their goals and Rushden have been sorely depleted by Tomlin's departure.

My outsiders would be AFC Wimbeldon at 19.5 and, to try and fend off the nightmare scenario of Crawley ending on top of the pile, backing the at 7.2 Betfair
Clive | 10 August 2010

Last year we were managed by Mick Harford great player not a manager, last year we had players running the show and doing what they wanted all have gone!! This year we have two new additions at the back, a new look mid field and Barnes Homer who had personal problems last year back to his best plus all the other signings gelling nicely. Since our defeat to Alfreton Town! we beat Liverpool 3-0 Newcastle 4-1 Kilmarnock 1-0 and Woking 2-1, one defeat in 11 per season friendlies doesn't tell me we have a sloppy defence. Now you see before Christmas last year we had Alan White at the back Money came in shipped him out and we went on a 14 game unbeaten run NOT LOSING TO ANY OF THE TOP TEAMS. Before Christmas we were crap once the snow had cleared we were brilliant it was a case of to little to late at the end. Don't base you tips on last season or one game in pre-season get your facts right DON'T write us off this year will be very different.
Boffin | 10 August 2010

Well, you've certainly proved that you know nothing whatsoever about Luton Town.
Steve Roy | 11 August 2010

A poorly researched piece. Luton didn't go up last season because they had Mick Harford as manager for the first few months. Harford is a good No2 but not cut out to be the top dog.

Once Money came in and settled things, Luton started flying, regularly knocking in 6, 7 and 8 goals a game. Unbeaten since March, they just failed to grab promotion despite the poor start to the season.

This summer they have made some great signings and personally I think they'll win the league by 10 points. With Oxford and Stevenage gone, the league is much weaker than last season.
The Pacman | 11 August 2010

Let's wait till May to see who knows nothing and who knows a thing or two. Seems like this betting recommendation is based purely on price, which in the writer's opinion, is far too short about Luton winning the division. Can't I disagree with him but as ever in sport and in betting, the proof will be in the pudding.
the boz | 11 August 2010

Partly about price (they are 6/1 joint favourites with York in my book) but partly becuase when I do an assessment, I look at ALL the teams. I have spent the summer doing yardsticks (i don't mess about boys!) and what i saw of Grimsby and Darlington suggested that they come down with better chance of winning the league than Luton had last year. In Darlington's case, they have learned from the mistakes that Luton made. They won't have a Mick Harford first half the season!
It is true that I knew nothing about Luton before last season which is why I went to see them at Hampton in the summer where I was told categorically by all the same people as above that they would walk the league (under Mick Harford) - including of course the media pundit who I sat next too and several bookmakers who were creaming themselves (but are now very fat!).
Instead of the hype, I watch the football. And the fans I might add. I watched them at the York games and that issue is not over yet. That may still have an impact on the market.
I do know a great deal about Luton as a non-league side now informed by what i saw last season and what I have seen over the summer. Not all of it is included in the above of course. They only give me 800 words there which ain't much. I also know a lot about Alfreton so that game (much more relevant than any holiday games against Liverpool XIs) was a genuine non-league yardstick as indeed was the Hampton game last year.
I said that Luton beat lots of teams by a hatful in my report and they did and they will again. If it makes you all feel better, I perversely also think they might have a good chance of winning league 2 and/or even League 1!

Non-League football is something else and I agree that things ought to be better this year with Money around instead of Harford. I do not agree however that the league will be any easier this year and that is why the price of 2/1 (and sinking) is absurd and, as Gerry rightly says, worth LAYING.

This is about betting. The clever guys take note of price in relation to chance.
Luton are joint favourites in my book so it's not that I don't give them a good chance. Mind you FA sanctions regarding those play-off pitch invasions would have me worried if I was a backer!!!!!
Rosvaldo | 11 August 2010

We get it 'Boz'. You don't like Luton Town. Don't attack the team just because the bookies do though.
Daz | 11 August 2010

Well I certainly agree that Luton's price is too short for what is going to be I think a competitive league to say they should be about 9.0 is a bit silly as I would probably have them around the 4-5/1 mark. I also disagree with your points about them. To say they were a long way short of winning the league is just a stupid thing to say about a side who finished 2nd. Apparently they were poor against Alfreton but that was there 5th game in 9 days (I think) and Im never one for pre season form anyway. I agree with you about laying them because I think they will trade bigger but they certainly will be in the play-offs at the very least.
Ive tipped up Crawley (on at bigger prices than they are now), Rushden (although gutted to see Tomlin leave on Friday) and Wrexham.
Finally what is your fasinaction over Barrow? For two seasons now they have struggled and they had money from a cup run last year and still struggled and disgracefully won the FA Trophy. Id be amazed if they finished outside the bottom 8, they are way to inconsistent and I dont see that changing at all.
Whaley Hatter | 11 August 2010

A very poor piece of uninformed journalism - I'll refer you to the comments already made but in addition.....how on earth can you price Barrow and Fleetwood on last seasons results? I do agree, LTFC's price is too short but the rationale is way off the mark.
If you don't know what to say, best you say nothing at all.
the boz | 13 August 2010

My final comment. All I say, I stand by and we'll see what the results throw up.
If you read this column last year, you know we made a packet opposing Luton in the outrights (they drifted out to 12/1 at one point when of course I backed them and shouted for them to keep winning which sadly they did not!!). They finished second but at no point did they ever look like winning the league. Tell me I'm wrong about that and you weren't following it.
Barrow beat Oxford and Stevenage in high grade competitive non league games last year and have been tracked for six years now with the annual progress monitored. They are easily dismissed because of their inconsistency in the league over the past two seasons but at over 100.0, they are a wrong price in the market in relation to chance. I checked carefully before I said that about Fleetwood but they are too and already you've made money if you followed me on that because their price is sinking before the ball is kicked. They really have made some significant signings this summer!

And for the record, I do like Luton as a team actually. They've made me money on a regular basis in the past (sometimes when opposed because they were too short admittedly!!) and all I ever write about in this column is what to do on the betfair markets. I save my football fan writing for where it belongs!! Not that I don't appreciate you Luton guys pitching in here. Always nice to have a bit of banter. See you in a month when we will see if Luton are top after six games or not (next Saturday I will be at Fleetwood for the all ticket as I understandably consider that a key game for this early season).
Daz | 16 August 2010

First game of the season and all that but after Barrow losing to Histon on Saturday try telling me they have any chance of winning the league. They are over 100/1 for a reason and that reason is they will not be anywhere near winning the league. Admit it you do have a bias towards them.
theboz | 17 August 2010

They were even worse tonight Daz!
My bias is that I make money following them closely for betting purposes - something I can do more effectively by living nearby. Good record last six years. Not so good last four days!
I don't always get it right of course as I've just proved. They have been dire both games and as you say, early days but not looking good! They are more players down than I allowed for but that's no excuse really for two abysmal performances.
I shall shut up about them in this column if you don't want to hear. No problem. These comments are for you to tell me what you want!
The funny thing for me is try telling the Barrow forum that BOZ is a fan of the Bluebirds. They give me more stick than you do!
It's all in the game mate. I appreciate the time you take to comment and I'll still be there in Fleetwood on Saturday for what I consider a seriously crucial early season game. I might have got them right. The odds should be interesting.
Daz | 19 August 2010

I dont have a problem with you mentioning Barrow but it has seemed to me because you watch them a lot at times you have favoured them in your pieces which at times has baffled me and tipping them up to win the league was the biggest yet.
You have your opinion and I always find it interesting to read compared to what I think about the games and by all means mention Barrow if you fancy them or are against them and Im guessing you might be against them this week?
the boz | 24 August 2010

Barrow played an old trick to wake the lazy arses up. They played the Premiership standard manager - Sheridan - in midfield. It has worked before. They've also got Edwards back at left back and Hulbert is back from suspension tonight. Things should improve. Big yardstick game at York tonight.
Yes, I do write a lot about Barrow because they are my local yardstick but they are also often value prices as they get ignored by the Southern bookies. They were a great price to win at Wembley last season.
Luton were good at Fleetwood and will continue in this vein I'd say whilst the weather holds up. Their price sinks further and the Boz is almost ready for another small lay! I still think their defence will struggle in the mud! They are still my favourites to win the league though after York's stinking start but even money is very very short! They aren't that good. Altrincham matched them opening day. It's a tougher division to win than it looks!