Non League Betting: Which way to bet in the battle of the wobblers?

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 24 April 2009 / 1 Comments

The Boz previews an extraordinary final day in store in the Blue Square Premier...Best Bet: Lay Alfreton @ [1.61] or less against Redditch.

There was Johnny Rotten's bass player in Public Image Limited. There was that board that Rolf Harris used in his rendition of 'Sun-Arise' and then there's Rowntree's Jellies... You'll have to go some though to find a wobble to outclass that achieved by Burton Albion if they don't lift the Blue Square Premier Trophy after Sunday's final games.

Nineteen points clear toward the end of February, the gap closing was always a possibility with the Brewers saving their six hardest opponents to the last six games. Meaning of course that the points gap was always a false one but when Cambridge lost three in a row, Histon started stuttering and Torquay followed their win at the Pirelli with a home defeat against Crawley, you still felt Burton Albion were not really capable of throwing it away. With the exception of the defeat at Crawley, they haven't been losing badly but losing they are and confidence going into the showdown with Torquay at Plainmoor Live on Setanta on Sunday is now at rock bottom.

Cambridge have to engender a five goal swing to nick it on goal difference and can be expected to go all out to annihilate an Altrincham side that have nothing to play for and could be expected to lose this even under normal circumstances. Cambridge's great advantage is that their play-off place is secure and so it's a 'nothing to lose-everything to gain game' for them and not surprisingly there is plenty of Betfair activity in the over 2.5 goals market.

There seems very little likelihood of this being a 0-0 or a 1-0 unless Stuart Coburn has a blinder in the Altrincham goal. And you may remember that The Boz has him in the bottom two of his Blue Square Premier Goalkeeper's table for this season and last!

With a Cambridge win a seeming certainty, the odds do of course reflect that but let me paint a possible scenario for you. Cambridge are a goal up at half-time perhaps and looking to step on the gas second half when they hear that Burton are 3-0 up half-time at Plainmoor. No surprise then if the Us surmise that they need to preserve themselves for the upcoming play-offs as surely an eight goal swing would be unreasonable to expect. Altrincham's price of [11.0] then becomes interesting as they are far from a rollover team and Colin Little is always good for a goal against anyone.

It is actually far less easy to call which way it might go at Plainmoor where Burton only need a draw as they have in the last two televised encounters. Sure to be a nervous affair, the slightly bizarre stat from my record book is that of these two well known wobblers, it is in fact Torquay who have the worse record in games that matter.

Losses against Aldershot, Exeter and Ebbsfleet in crucial games last season saw Torquay labelled as a team likely to wilt in the heat. And they need this game to secure their play-off place every bit as much as Burton need it for the title. I watched them at Holker Street Tuesday night in another game they needed to win and they were woeful first half and with the exception of captain Chris Hargreaves - who got them an exquisitely taken equaliser - they looked pale and nervous second half whilst obviously responding as best they could to the half-time rollicking given them by Paul Buckle.

I can't be tempted by a Torquay win at [2.3] but the way they've been playing, I can't regard a Burton win at [3.4] a reliable prospect either so I reluctantly intend sitting this one out for betting purposes and instead provide a gilt edged Lay bet recommendation in the Blue Square North final games on Saturday.

Alfreton are priced at [1.61] to beat Redditch but this is a game where neither team have anything to play for and such odds are always suspect on such occasions. Add to that the fact that Redditch - whose form throughout the season has been about as reliable as old British Rail trains - have suddenly hit the kind of form I expected of them at the start of the season, winning four and drawing with Tamworth and Telford in their last six games. They come into this on fire and with the Nottinghamshire Lads sure to be carefully preserving their fitness status for the upcoming play-off campaign, I think Alfreton are an extremely unlikely winner and a Solid Gold lay. The evidence of Alfreton's 'step off the gas' attitude could be seen on Tuesday night when 3-1 up at half time against Farsley. They cruised second half and allowed the Yorkshiremen back to 3-3.