Non League Betting: Welcome to the Beautiful South

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 20 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Newport County manager Dean Holdsworth may have made his name as a striker when playing but it's his side's defence that has been Newport County's forte this season

"Dean Holdsworth has proved a serious rookie manager with a tremendous ability to inspire team spirit and with just nine goals conceded in twenty three league games, he has also defied his playing bias and shown an understanding that defensive coaching is the key to success in any football league anywhere in the world."

Gary Boswell turns his attentions to the Blue Square Conference South this week, where Newport County, managed by a certain Dean Holdsworth, are the pick of this week's selections.

Previous seasons tipping for betting.betfair.com have shown me to be not the world's greatest expert when it comes to Conference South. I live a long way from the grounds and with no TV coverage, get to see very few games. Knowing my greatest information disseminator to be my eyesight, I have always therefore felt a little under equipped for professional tipping in that quarter and after poor scores for the last two years, resolved to leave the division alone this year.

As with writing, I've always abided by the "tip what you know" maxim but I've gotten to January this year with still a small deficit in my match betting score. My eyesight has not really served me in the Blue Square North this season and efforts elsewhere and in my own betting suggest that maybe Blue Square South is a slightly easier read after all. Time to put aside my prejudices and grasp the nettle to have a go in an area that would normally leave me floundering.

One of the big differences for me this year is that I picked up what I might call a 'Southern snout'. That is a confidant who I know I can trust and who lives in the South and sees a plethora of games in the division. His information has proved very accurate and so I go at the Blue Square South with new confidence. Second hand knowledge is just as good as first hand knowledge when you know you can trust it!

And I know I can because whilst I was busy putting people onto Hampton & Richmond early in the season based on the little bit I'd seen, my spy was whispering Newport County in my ear.

The Exiles come into 2010 with a twelve point lead and a couple of games in hand and look to have the title to throw away. We saw Burton attempt that last year of course but no signs of Wales' fourth biggest club doing the same. Dean Holdsworth has proved a serious rookie manager with a tremendous ability to inspire team spirit and with just nine goals conceded in twenty three league games, he has also defied his playing bias and shown an understanding that defensive coaching is the key to success in any football league anywhere in the world.

Just five concedes in thirteen games at Spytty Park and you can't see St Albans spoiling that record on Saturday, having lost key players in the week to Luton Town.
Newport are once more a Blue Square banker and [1.4] does not look a particularly mean price.

Second best are basement strugglers Lewes who have picked up markedly since the taxman problem was finally resolved and, more importantly, Jean Michel Sigere turned up and started using his vast experience at this level to bag a few goals for the beleaguered guardians of the Dripping Pan. Avoidance of relegation now becomes a real possibility for the Rooks and they host fellow strugglers Weston Super Mare in a six pointer this weekend. They are [2.1] to win and that strikes me as a wrong price based on their current resurgent form. If Newport were not such a banker, that would be my weekend nap.

Speculative bet, as it always must be, is the week's draw selection. That honour falls in the Havant & Waterlooville-Braintree game. Past performance is never guarantee of future repetition and yet patterns do form and recur and it is always a reliable system for any kind of sporting result prediction. Havant have a stunning 60% draw incidence for their home games this season whilst Braintree have an even more impressive 66% incidence for their away games. [3.4] the draw is value on paper and when asked who was the more likely to win of the two, my spy did a mastermind and passed which is good enough for me!

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK HAVANT & WATERLOOVILLE-BRAINTREE draw at [3.4] or greater
BACK NEWPORT COUNTY at [1.4] or greater against ST ALBANS
BACK LEWES at [2.1] or greater against WESTON-SUPER-MARE

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -6.70 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.