Non-League Betting: The only day with an X in it (or is it?)

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 23 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Journeyman Gareth Seddon is a key player for Fleetwood

THE BOZ’S BEST BOXING DAY BETS:

BACK FLEETWOOD at [3.0] or longer to beat SOUTHPORT
BACK the WORKINGTON-BLYTH SPARTANS draw at [3.8] or longer
BACK the CRAWLEY-EASTBOURNE draw at [3.8] or longer

Gary Boswell is excited about the Boxing Day fixtures with a strong view on a genuine six-pointer of a match and a couple of very appropriate Xs, given the day they will be played...

Although undoubtedly governed by the geographical dictate, the fixtures compiler nevertheless had an inspired moment when he pitted Southport up against Fleetwood in The Blue Square North Boxing Day list.

First and second in the division and as genuine a six pointer as you can imagine. Haig Avenue is likely to be rocking and I will be swanning on down with good cause after the Cod Army did me a serious good turn last weekend. I often get superstitious at this time of year and when the nap bet of the North is not only a winner but is also the only fixture that gets played due to the abysmal weather we are enduring, then I get more than goose bumps!

Fleetwood came from behind to bury the attentions of Stafford Rangers mastering the slipping and sliding style of football - played in the midst of a myriad of snow melted puddles - in the process. Pretty it was not but the job got done and they moved to within six points of the Sandgrounders with a game in hand. Another three points in this big festive showdown will all but close the gap that Southport had temporarily opened on the league.

[3.0] the away win might seem short when you consider that there's only been one defeat at Haig Avenue so far this year but I believe the Fishermen's Friends (the lozenge has its home in the town) have the mettle to see them through what is sure to be a feisty Derby match. In Nathan Pond they have the ideal midfield dynamo who was made for games like these. Always THE man for a battle, Pond has new depth to his game this season and an added maturity that has impressed watchers and league scouts alike. He could well be a target once that January transfer window opens.

Up front, much travelled journeyman Gareth Seddon has added experienced firepower alongside ex-Barrow hit man Nick Rogan.Talented absentee Adam Warlow has thus not been hugely missed. With Jamie Millligan, Michael Wilde and Sean Clancy also on the league's top scorer list, this is a Fleetwood side with a clear set of goalgetting options and I make them outstanding value to win for us again this weekend.

The other big seasonal superstition is rooted in my Grandad's assertion that because Boxing Day ' is the only day of the year with an X in it', we pundits should concentrate on seeking our potential coupon bonuses likely to end up drawing over the festive season. X of course being the symbol used by the traditional Pools coupon guys to signify a draw.

This is a superstition actually backed up by stats that do prove a higher instance of Boxing Day even stevens than average. Why should that be? Too much pud dulls the competitive edge? Taking the season of goodwill too literally? Or just that old chestnut, the geographical dictate of pitting neighbours against each other on Boxing Day? Stats show a higher than average incidence of draws in local derbies too.

Although they neither qualify as derbies in quite the same way that Fleetwood-Southport does, my two draw predictions to boost the Xmas coffers are Workington-Blyth Spartans in the Blue Square North and Crawley-Eastbourne in the Premier.

The premium draw price of [3.8] is possible in both cases and both are supported by recent form stats.

Workington have drawn 50% of their games at Borough Park this season whilst Blyth have a greater than 50% draw incidence on the road. Eastbourne have the extraordinary record of having drawn five of their last six and although outsiders against Steve Evans' Crawley - who have won seven of their twelve home games so far this season - can be fancied to avoid defeat again.

These kind of statistical occurrences do not of course go guaranteeing the drawn result but I like them nevertheless as proven indicators of sides with the mentality of finding the draw an acceptable result. Perhaps surprisingly (or perhaps not), this is my most successful method of draw prediction in my work on the Non-League Pools panel and it always gets dragged out to satiate my Grandad's Boxing Day betting needs!

p.s. I was forty six years old before I found out that Grandad was lying to me. Boxing Day is not the only day of the year with an X in it. I set it as my seasonal quiz question with ten points to those who can come up with the other qualifying day!

THE BOZ'S BEST BOXING DAY BETS:

BACK FLEETWOOD at [3.0] or longer to beat SOUTHPORT
BACK the WORKINGTON-BLYTH SPARTANS draw at [3.8] or longer
BACK the CRAWLEY-EASTBOURNE draw at [3.8] or longer

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -4.77 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams.