Non-league Betting: The Bluebirds are flying

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 16 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Marc Goodfellow is congratulated by his Barrow team-mates after scoring against Oxford in the FA Cup.

Best Bets: BACK BARROW at [7.6] or longer to beat STEVENAGE
BACK STEVENAGE-BARROW DRAW at [4.0] or longer
BACK OXFORD at [2.25] or longer to beat CAMBRIDGE
BACK FLEETWOOD at [1.5] to beat STAFFORD RANGERS

Gary Boswell continues to show faith in Barrow, who travel to the perenially under-priced Stevenage for the first of his weekend Non-League selections.

I'm a great fan of current form stats and each week seek out those teams with good recent records who are being offered at elongated prices.

There's a good case in point with Barrow this weekend after the Bluebirds did the honours for us in the FA Trophy last weekend, beating [1.86] shots Kettering, who we were laying. They're [7.6] to win at the weekend despite only one defeat in the last seventeen and that a 1-0 reverse at league leaders Oxford. You couldn't be blamed for assuming they were away to Arsenal this week but in fact it's a trip to our old friends - the perennial price-pinched Stevenage Borough - at Broadhall Way.

Graham Westley's outfit have yet to lose at home, hence the ultra skinny price of [1.5]. With Stevenage though, you could put them in a mangle and get them beat by the girls and they'd still be odds-on next game. Compilers always have them chalked as a shorty and its one of the stereotypes about non-league football betting I've never really understood. Just one to accept and benefit from!

Stevenage's home record is not without holes. Home draws with Altrincham, Grays, Tamworth and Wrexham show a tendency to fail to kill off sides they'd be expected to beat and although those games all came in the earlier part of the season when Stevenage's form was still settling down, it acts for me as an incentive to start the level stakes system for the second half of the season to try and predict their first home defeat. It has to happen somewhere and if the luck is in, it could land for us at the first attempt!

Certainly Barrow are in the sort of shape to be at least competitive. The arrival of Greg Blundell up front has released Jason Walker to play in a way that expresses his talent and the ex-Dundee hitman is class at this level when he stays fit and has bagged 11 already this season with few of them being scruffy tap ins. Also noticeable that goalkeeper Tim Deasy was recalled for the Trophy. He acted as a clean sheet talisman for Barrow when they got promotion and although his form is erratic at the higher level, he cuts the mustard on his day and it is a good sign to see him back in form.

Tabs will have to be kept on Stevenage playmakers Stacy Long and Mitchell Cole who act as the class in the Borough engine room but the reverse fixture at Holker Street was 0-0 and I've a feeling that has some betting credence for this game too with the possibility of Barrow, nicking it as they did at Kettering. Current form is everything and whilst Stevenage are at the top end of the tree, they don't justify [1.5] with a recent defeat against lowly Ebbsfleet to explain. Up here against the team that knocked Oxford out of the FA Cup. I'll have a point on the Barrow win and a level stake on the draw to cover the possible stalemate.

It could be a bad weekend for Borough if the varsity match on Friday night also goes against them. Oxford are [2.25] to win at Cambridge and whilst it's far from a breeze, Chris Wilder continues to get good value out of his Cook and Constable combination up front with Alfie Potter providing able stand in for Jamie Cook when the squad shuffle is required. . It's simple supply and demand football* but it's worked for the Us who go into the Xmas period looking the likely title holders.

Dropping down into BSN for a final bet, the Fleetwood Cod Army were spotted on Tuesday night mullering Charlton Athletic's FA Cup nemesis Northwich by three goals away from home. They've been slow to come to the boil as championship challengers but lurk just beneath the water like a hungry shark and I intend to follow them home starting this Saturday with a banker home win against hapless Stafford Rangers.

*Centre forward demands the ball (hands flat out in front of his thighs and gob extended at full throttle) and the winger supplies it precisely on his nut.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK BARROW at [7.6] or longer to beat STEVENAGE
BACK STEVENAGE-BARROW DRAW at [4.0] or longer
BACK OXFORD at [2.25] or longer to beat CAMBRIDGE
BACK FLEETWOOD at [1.5] to beat STAFFORD RANGERS