Non-league / Gary Boswell / 26 January 2011 /

AFC Wimbledon may well win this match but there are good ways to profit rather than just backing them before kick-off and hoping for the best. Gary Boswell explains all.

Nine games for AFC Wimbledon in the past four weeks since the bad weather break and only once in those nine games have the Wombles scored inside the first twenty minutes of play. That was Danny Kedwell's strike on 16 minutes at Fleetwood that earned the league front-runners a point - five of those nine games having ended up as draws.

Those stats will not surprise non league followers who will be aware of Terry Brown's 'marathon rather than sprint' approach to winning the league this season. It applies to their individual game approach too and should have In-Play punters poised with their strategies at the ready for this Friday evening's visit to Gateshead live on Premiersports.

Not known for being quick out of the blocks are AFC Wimbledon. Their season also unravelled in January 2010 and Terry Brown has been very keen to learn from that experience and ensure that in 2011, the Wombles perform at their peak all the way to the line. Squad rotation has been in evidence in those nine games with the home game against Woking in the Trophy evidence - if anybody needed it - that the inaugural Supporters Trust team are determined to also become the first such outfit to get promoted into the Football League.

It's a key game on Friday at the International Stadium in Gateshead and the Wombles are unsurprisingly [1.92] to win it in the match betting after their performance so far this season in the league and the 5-0 thumping they gave to Southport on Saturday (followed by a 2-2 draw at Bath on Tuesday night).

That was only their second win in the last nine however and there will be those who consider that a bit short a price really, especially when you factor in Gateshead's sudden return to form. The 3-0 win over Barrow was emphatic enough but taking a two nil lead at Kenilworth Road on Saturday and then hanging on with ten men to take their fourth point this season off Luton marks out Ian Bogie's boys as worthy of match betting consideration also at [4.2].

Which is where the In-Play strategy thinking comes in. That tendency of AFC Wimbledon not to score early means that their cramped match betting price is likely to drift in the first 15-20 minutes on Friday night and if you fancy them, you are advised to wait a while before coming into the price in order to get the value.

Conversely, the draw price will contract in those first 15-20 minutes (assuming Gateshead don't get an early goal) and the wise play if you fancy an even stevens over 90 minutes will be to back that at [3.3] before the off. AFC Wimbledon don't exactly specialise in 0-0s but they have also had their only two of those this season in the last nine games and that is worth keeping mind of in view of Terry Brown's aforementioned 'marathon not sprint' policy.

Personally, I quite fancy a punt on Gateshead. Winger Martin Brittain is one of my favourite players in the BSBP and his crosses to Jon Shaw's head have been of fine quality in those last two games. If the aptly named Kris Gate bosses the midfield like he did when I saw them against Barrow, they could prove a value win bet.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing Gateshead and letting it ride or backing the draw with a view to possibly trading out depending on how the action unfolds but my recommended bet revolves around that drifting AFC Wimbledon price In-play. The Wombles are too good to ignore totally and the In-Play BACK price will be taken as a hedge bet some time in those first twenty minutes play.

THE BOZ's BET RECOMMENDATION:

2pt LAY AFC WIMBLEDON at [1.92] or less before kick-off to be hedged in play as the AFC WIMBLEDON price drifts during the first 15-20 minutes.

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