Non-League Betting: Sticking with the three-way lay policy

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 27 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Cambridge United are worth taking on this week at odds-on.

"Recommended bets: LAY MANSFIELD at [2.18] or shorter against Chester City
LAY YORK CITY at [2.42] or shorter against Histon
LAY CAMBRIDGE UNITED at [1.73] or shorter against Gateshead"

Gary Boswell licks his wounds from last week's losses but shows faith in his own betting strategy and means business this week, taking on the likes of Cambridge City.

I'm sticking to my three lays a week (as good for your health as any apple or morning constitutional is for you every day!) despite it letting me down last week in the shape of AFC Wimbledon. I might have known not to take on something at the boundaries of good sense, price-wise, and although it was a late goal and hardly a disaster pick, the damage it did to profits did hurt so I'm being more conservative this week and building profit protection into my strategy.

I had five games pencilled in for consideration in what is an especially tricky Blue Square Premier programme on Saturday.The two I've jettisoned are the bigger risk lays on Wrexham who have to travel to 'yet to get off the mark' Forest Green and the well fancied lay on Barrow who have to be taken on at around [2.7] at home to currently unbeaten Tamworth. Main reason for the jettison is the degree of risk as the Bluebirds are certainly second best to the Lambs on current form and the Lambs do have a serious defensive capability and mentality that makes them extremely difficult to break down and highly prone to draws at this higher level (three from five so far this year). So their opponents will always be a good lay prospect this season but the price still has to be right and because of their geographical placing and particularly partisan crowd, Barrow still do have a home advantage factor that makes them always a possible home banker. Especially now that managers Bayliss and Sheridan are reportedly on the verge of sorting the striker crisis. The someone to be unveiled as Jason Walker's partner in crime is about to happen and could play Saturday. Barrow do strike me as just that striker away from being a force in this league.

So I won't risk them and although Wrexham are proving very average, poor on the road again, and up against a Forest Green who must avoid defeat soon based on their improving form and the fact that continued losses will be catastrophic for them as a club, I won't risk laying the Dragons either because the [2.25] is a little more than I would want to be taking on when up against a basement club.

It's a fairer price to be taking Mansfield on with because they must visit the Deva to play the actual basement club Chester City whose position on the bottom is totally false based on their performance at Kenilworth Road last weekend. More cohesion from newly acquired Premier League standard striker Nick Chadwick (three goals at Goodison two seasons ago) and Burnley trainee Chris Lynch who came in on loan for the Luton game and Chester would have gone away from the league's screaming favourites with all three points. A direct formline shows us that is something Mansfield came nowhere near doing when they lost 4-1 there two weeks ago.

Obviously there is some guesswork involved when playing in Chester games at the moment but I'm smelling serious moolah in evidence again at this supposedly 'bankrupt' club who are only in the league courtesy of those extremely nice chairmen of the other Conference clubs who were running scared of losing the second promotion place they had fought so hard to achieve.

Chester intend to take advantage of their reprieve and the 25 point deduction will go up in smoke if they can get on the kind of run that players like Chadwick and Lynch can theoretically engender. Theory and practice are different things of course but prices on Chester avoiding relegation are gigantic (bookmakers are laying at 1.05 on them going down) and the Betfair market does have Chester as its infamous [1000.0] shot to win the BSP which is something I have given second look to. Chester would need to win thirty five of the remaining forty three games to have a chance of that and I'm not suggesting that is likely. Interesting though that I'm not the only one looking as I note Chester have been backed with Betfair at [15.0] and [34.0] in the promotion market for which they would need to win perhaps just thirty of their remaining games (just thirty!!). It's a conspiracy theory sort of bet but if they beat well fancied Mansfield on Saturday as I think they might on the way they handled Luton, don't say you didn't read it here first!

So I'm taking on Mansfield at [2.18] away and York[2.42] and Cambridge [1.73] at home. The Minstermen have to play host to my long term tips for the title in Histon who have come up as pundits suggested a little bit lighter this season so far. I've still been pretty impressed with what I've seen though and super sub Hudson-Odoi is a major bench weapon to add to the International standard being set by the likes of Lanre Oyebanjo (Called up for ROI this week) and I think that despite the personnel exodus that happened end of last season, Steve Fallon and John Beck still have finger on the pulse and are planning the long campaign for this season. I expect them to go and get something from the Kitkat.

Cambridge have been successfully opposed twice this year already and this is another opportunity as they play host to Ian's 'Bogie'men who seriously undid Crawley away last weekend and nearly did for Luton the week before. They look like a road side after failing to win two of their games at the International Stadium already but in the perfectly named Kris Gate, they have a striker to cause defensive headaches at this level and the get of Kidderminster's star provider Martin Brittain was signal to me that the Lee Novak money is being spent wisely. Brittain is a real danger at this level down the flanks and popped up taking the spot kicks aswell last weekend during the rout of Crawley Town. Gateshead have arrived in BSP!

THE BOZ'S BEST THREE BETS FOR THE WEEKEND:

LAY MANSFIELD at [2.18] or shorter against Chester City
LAY YORK CITY at [2.42] or shorter against Histon
LAY CAMBRIDGE UNITED at [1.73] or shorter against Gateshead

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of +2.62 to level stakes for the 09/10 season.